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Risk Analysis

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

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Sino-Indian Border Disputes In An Era Of Strategic Expansions, Roman Muzalevsky Nov 2021

Sino-Indian Border Disputes In An Era Of Strategic Expansions, Roman Muzalevsky

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The June 2020 clash between the People’s Republic of China and India in the disputed Ladakh border area resulted from the strategic expansions of both powers. Like two bubbles expanding in a contained space, these expansions were bound to collide and cause friction. This article explains how the expansions precipitated the incident and might exacerbate border disputes in the future. In pondering implications, it recommends Washington pursue a Eurasia-focused policy embracing the disputed region.


On “The Us Army And The Pacific: Challenges And Legacies”, Brian Mcallister Linn Nov 2021

On “The Us Army And The Pacific: Challenges And Legacies”, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This commentary responds to David M. Finkelstein’s article, “The US Army and the Pacific: Challenges and Legacies,” published in the Autumn 2020 issue of Parameters (vol. 50, no. 3).


The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco Nov 2021

The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Assessing threats to the air littoral, the airspace between ground forces and high-end fighters and bombers, requires a paradigm change in American military thinking about verticality. This article explores the consequences of domain convergence, specifically for the Army and Air Force’s different concepts of control. It will assist US military and policy practitioners in conceptualizing the air littoral and in thinking more vertically about the air and land domains and the challenges of domain convergence.


Hope Versus Reality: The Efficacy Of Using Us Military Aid To Improve Human Rights In Egypt, Gregory L. Aftandilian Aug 2021

Hope Versus Reality: The Efficacy Of Using Us Military Aid To Improve Human Rights In Egypt, Gregory L. Aftandilian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Using US military aid as a lever to achieve human rights reforms has proven only marginally effective. This article examines the approaches employed by the Obama and Trump administrations to US military aid to Egypt and proposes practical steps that can be taken by policymakers and the military personnel on the ground to advance US human rights values.


Book Reviews, Usawc Press Aug 2021

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates Aug 2021

The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Statistical evidence suggests Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula.


The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö Aug 2021

The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners.


Great (Soft) Power Competition: Us And Chinese Efforts In Global Health Engagement, Michael W. Wissemann Aug 2021

Great (Soft) Power Competition: Us And Chinese Efforts In Global Health Engagement, Michael W. Wissemann

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Global health engagement, an underutilized strategy rooted in the strengths of soft power persuasion, can lead to more military-to-military cooperation training, help establish relationships that can be relied on when crises develop, stabilize fragile states, and deny violent extremist organizations space for recruiting and operations. Examining Chinese efforts worldwide to curry favor and influence and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article shows health as a medium is a very compelling and advantageous whole-of-government approach to national security policy concerns.


Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg Aug 2021

Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level.


Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn Aug 2021

Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Drawing on Samuel P. Huntington’s three phases of self-regulation used to determine if an occupation qualifies as a profession, this article focuses on the third phase of policing and removing those who fail to uphold the standards set forth in the first two phases. It reviews how the US Army implemented this phase following the Civil War through the post–Vietnam War years and the implications for the officer corps.