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Ten Years Of Gwot, The Failure Of Democratization And The Fallacy Of “Ungoverned Spaces”, David P. Oakley, Patrick Proctor
Ten Years Of Gwot, The Failure Of Democratization And The Fallacy Of “Ungoverned Spaces”, David P. Oakley, Patrick Proctor
Journal of Strategic Security
October 7, 2011, marked a decade since the United States invaded Afghanistan and initiated the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). While most ten-year anniversary gifts involve aluminum, tin, or diamonds, the greatest gift U.S. policymakers can present American citizens is a reconsideration of the logic that guides America's counterterrorism strategy. Although the United States has successfully averted large-scale domestic terrorist attacks, its inability to grasp the nature of the enemy has cost it dearly in wasted resources and, more importantly, lost lives. Two of the most consistent and glaring policy flaws revolve around the concepts of filling "ungoverned spaces" and …
Deterring And Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism, John J. Klein
Deterring And Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism, John J. Klein
Journal of Strategic Security
While nuclear deterrence theory may be well-suited to dealing with nuclear-armed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 9/11. While terrorist organizations do not necessarily act uniformly or according to the same underlying beliefs, many of the most aggressive organizations are motivated by an ideology that embraces martyrdom and an apocalyptic vision.1 This ideology may be based on religion or a desire to overthrow a government. Consequently, terrorists motivated by ideology who intend to use a stolen or improvised nuclear device against the United States or its interests may not care about the resulting military …
Extraordinary Rendition And U.S. Counterterrorism Policy, Mark J. Murray
Extraordinary Rendition And U.S. Counterterrorism Policy, Mark J. Murray
Journal of Strategic Security
This article examines the United States Government policy of extraordinary rendition as a response to terrorism. The paper provides a working definition of the term, outlines why it has become controversial, and uses case studies to examine success and failures of extraordinary rendition in practice. The paper concludes with lessons learned—more specifically, policy amendments—that are necessary to keep extraordinary rendition as a viable tool for the Obama Administration and mitigate political fallout against the United States from both its allies and enemies. This paper argues that extraordinary rendition provides flexibility to policymakers to detain terrorists in cases where an attack …
Hizbollah–Syrian Intelligence Affairs: A Marriage Of Convenience, Carl Anthony Wege
Hizbollah–Syrian Intelligence Affairs: A Marriage Of Convenience, Carl Anthony Wege
Journal of Strategic Security
Since the 1980s, Hizbollah has emerged as the guardian of Lebanon's Shi'a and a stalking horse for Iran. Syria, though allied with Tehran, seeks to manage Hizbollah's freedom of action in Lebanon and is eyed cautiously in Damascus. Hizbollah has managed to maintain independence from these Syrian efforts because of both Lebanese Shi'a religious élan and the protection given Hizbollah by its Shi'a allies in Iran.
Mitigating The Exploitation Of U.S. Borders By Jihadists And Criminal Organizations, Todd Steinmetz
Mitigating The Exploitation Of U.S. Borders By Jihadists And Criminal Organizations, Todd Steinmetz
Journal of Strategic Security
Following the events of September 11, 2001, the U.S. Government began improving security in large population centers and near potential highvalue terrorist targets. Included in these efforts was the development of a more robust border security program, with an emphasis on reducing the threat of terrorist infiltration at America's borders. However, nearly a decade after 9/11, terrorism and organized crime continue to pose significant threats to the United States. As many of these threats emanate from other nations, improved border security helps mitigate these threats. This article summarizes known terrorist activity along the U.S. northern and southern borders, and highlights …
Modeling Human Behavior To Anticipate Insider Attacks, Frank L. Greitzer , Ph.D., Ryan E. Hohimer
Modeling Human Behavior To Anticipate Insider Attacks, Frank L. Greitzer , Ph.D., Ryan E. Hohimer
Journal of Strategic Security
The insider threat ranks among the most pressing cyber-security challenges
that threaten government and industry information infrastructures.
To date, no systematic methods have been developed that provide a
complete and effective approach to prevent data leakage, espionage, and
sabotage. Current practice is forensic in nature, relegating to the analyst
the bulk of the responsibility to monitor, analyze, and correlate an overwhelming
amount of data. We describe a predictive modeling framework
that integrates a diverse set of data sources from the cyber domain, as well
as inferred psychological/motivational factors that may underlie malicious
insider exploits. This comprehensive threat assessment approach
provides …
"Obama's Wars," Bob Woodward, (New York, Ny: Simon And Schuster, 2010), Richard J. Kilroy Jr.
"Obama's Wars," Bob Woodward, (New York, Ny: Simon And Schuster, 2010), Richard J. Kilroy Jr.
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Alternative Threat Methodology, Charles B. King Iii
Alternative Threat Methodology, Charles B. King Iii
Journal of Strategic Security
Of the many challenges facing risk analysis practitioners, perhaps the most difficult to overcome is in the field of terrorist threat analysis. When estimating the threat associated with naturally occurring events, historical data provides a great deal of insight into the frequency of those events. Threat associated with accidents applies many operations research tools to gauge future failure-rates (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis being perhaps the most widely known). However, estimating the probability of an individual's or group's attacking a specific (or even a generic) target is an element of risk analysis in which art and intuition are applied far …
Four Lessons From The Study Of Fundamentalism And Psychology Of Religion, Sara Savage
Four Lessons From The Study Of Fundamentalism And Psychology Of Religion, Sara Savage
Journal of Strategic Security
What lessons can the study of fundamentalism and the psychology of religion teach the newer field of Radicalization and Involvement in Violent Extremism (RIVE)? Four lessons and an intervention are offered in this article: (1) Religion is a robust human experience and cultural product that adopts a defensive shape when its worldview is threatened. (2) This does not mean that all "fundamentalisms" or radical versions of religion are somehow linked or perform similar functions; rather, they reflect the limited human repertoire to threat, yet within different cultural and historical contexts. (3) Causal explanations on the level of the individual are …
Radicalization And The Use Of Social Media, Robin L. Thompson
Radicalization And The Use Of Social Media, Robin L. Thompson
Journal of Strategic Security
The use of social media tools by individuals and organizations to radicalize individuals for political and social change has become increasingly popular as the Internet penetrates more of the world and mobile computing devices are more accessible. To establish a construct for radicalization,the power and reach of social media will be described so there is common understanding of what social media is and how it is utilized by various individuals and groups. The second section will answer the question of why social media applications are the perfect platform for the radical voice. Finally, the use of social media and its …
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism I: A Review Of Social Science Theories, Randy Borum
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism I: A Review Of Social Science Theories, Randy Borum
Journal of Strategic Security
In discourse about countering terrorism, the term "radicalization" is widely used, but remains poorly defined. To focus narrowly on ideological radicalization risks implying that radical beliefs are a proxy—or at least a necessary precursor—for terrorism, though we know this not to be true.Different pathways and mechanisms of terrorism involvement operate in different ways for different people at different points in time and perhaps in different contexts. This article explores the problems in defining radicalization and radicalism, and suggests that radicalization—and more specifically, involvement in terrorism—might best be viewed as a set of diverse processes. It goes on to review several …
Radical Islamism And Migrant Integration In Denmark: An Empirical Inquiry, Marco Goli, Shahamak Rezaei
Radical Islamism And Migrant Integration In Denmark: An Empirical Inquiry, Marco Goli, Shahamak Rezaei
Journal of Strategic Security
It has been suggested that alienation and failed integration may be causes of "Homegrown Radical Islamism" in Western societies. Western countries often expect that migrants and their descendants residing there as citizens will embrace or support common democratic ideals as a predicate for—or consequence of—their societal integration. Conventional wisdom suggests: "The more you associate yourself with the cherished and established goals and means, the more you will disassociate yourself from Radical Islamism," and vice versa. We believe that, quite surprisingly, an empirical test of this idea is lacking. Based on a nationally representative sample of 1,113 youth (ages 15–30) in …
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism Ii: A Review Of Conceptual Models And Empirical Research, Randy Borum
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism Ii: A Review Of Conceptual Models And Empirical Research, Randy Borum
Journal of Strategic Security
Over the past decade, analysts have proposed several frameworks to explain the process of radicalization into violent extremism (RVE). These frameworks are based primarily on rational, conceptual models which are neither guided by theory nor derived from systematic research. This article reviews recent (post-9/11) conceptual models of the radicalization process and recent (post-9/11) empirical studies of RVE. It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between ideological radicalization and terrorism involvement, though both issues deserve further empirical inquiry.Finally, it summarizes some recent RVE-related research efforts, identifies seven things that social science researchers and operational personnel still need to know about violent radicalization, …
Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization And Violent Extremism, Alpaslan Özerdem, Sukanya Podder
Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization And Violent Extremism, Alpaslan Özerdem, Sukanya Podder
Journal of Strategic Security
In the complex of motivating variables that define the push and pull factors behind recruitment and participation in civil conflict, "radicalization"—or "violent extremism"—is not conceived as a very strong motive, as is the case with studies on terrorism. As part of disarming youth combatants,the linkages between reintegration outcomes and possible rerecruitment into radical and extremist violence must be better understood to mitigate such risks. In our analysis, the policies guiding reintegration of child soldiers and youth should be better attuned to the relationship between recruitment motivations and reintegration outcomes, and must be approached from a political lens rather than a …
Conceptualizing Terrorist Violence And Suicide Bombing, Murad Ismayilov
Conceptualizing Terrorist Violence And Suicide Bombing, Murad Ismayilov
Journal of Strategic Security
This article presents an analysis of different approaches to terrorist violence, with a particular focus on suicide terrorism, using the above mentioned levels of analysis as a conceptual framework to organize this study. In doing so, the article focuses primarily on four selected studies: Khashan's theory of collective Palestinian frustration operating at individual and structural levels; Pape's strategic theory of suicide terrorism, Devji's notion of global jihad, and Hammes' conceptualization of suicide terrorism as one of the strategies of Fourth Generation Warfare, all studied at a strategic level. Drawing on these analyses, as well as on Tilly, this article attempts …
Eriksonian Identity Theory In Counterterrorism, Cally O'Brien
Eriksonian Identity Theory In Counterterrorism, Cally O'Brien
Journal of Strategic Security
Certain terrorists come from unexpected backgrounds. They give up comfortable lives and opportunities in order to wage jihad. Their existence has puzzled various theorists since they came to light. This article will explain how a theory of psychosocial identity formation created by Erik Erikson and his student James Marcia may explain this phenomenon. It will also explain how Erikson's theoretical legacy has contributed to current attempts at increasing moderation in the Middle East through education. Many of those attempts reflect ideas that are drawn from Eriksonian theory, although they are not typically described in Eriksonian terms. Meanwhile, while some theorists …
North Korea And Support To Terrorism: An Evolving History, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr.
North Korea And Support To Terrorism: An Evolving History, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr.
Journal of Strategic Security
The DPRK's (Democratic People's Republic of Korea or North Korea) support for terrorism began as an ideologically-based policy financed by the Soviet Union that eventually led to a policy designed to put money into the coffers of the elite in Pyongyang—in short, a "proliferation for hire" policy. This article articulates a brief history of the North Korean regime, the rise to power of Kim Il-sung and his son, Kim Jong-il, and North Korea's persistent support to terrorist groups around the globe.
Variance, Violence, And Democracy: A Basic Microeconomic Model Of Terrorism, John A. Sautter
Variance, Violence, And Democracy: A Basic Microeconomic Model Of Terrorism, John A. Sautter
Journal of Strategic Security
Much of the debate surrounding contemporary studies of terrorism focuses upon transnational terrorism. However, historical and contemporary evidence suggests that domestic terrorism is a more prevalent and pressing concern. A formal microeconomic model of terrorism is utilized here to understand acts of political violence in a domestic context within the domain of democratic governance.This article builds a very basic microeconomic model of terrorist decision making to hypothesize how a democratic government might influence the sorts of strategies that terrorists use. Mathematical models have been used to explain terrorist behavior in the past. However, the bulk of inquires in this area …
Intelligence And Its Role In Protecting Against Terrorism, Richard J. Hughbank, Don Githens
Intelligence And Its Role In Protecting Against Terrorism, Richard J. Hughbank, Don Githens
Journal of Strategic Security
The art and science of gathering critical operational intelligence has been defined in many ways and is beyond our needs for this writing. Throughout the course of history, many wars have been fought depending heavily on various forms of intelligence. During our most recent actions in the War on Terror, intelligence analysis has played a critical role in both offensive and defensive operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. With such varying fact-finding techniques available and utilized in the defense of our country, it has become an arduous task to collect, decipher, package, prioritize, disseminate, and act upon everything that comes down …
Reviving The United States' Commitment To Pakistan And Afghanistan, Steve A. Young, Imdad Hussain Sahito
Reviving The United States' Commitment To Pakistan And Afghanistan, Steve A. Young, Imdad Hussain Sahito
Journal of Strategic Security
As President Obama is in the midst of deciding whether additional U.S.combat forces are needed in Afghanistan in addition to the 21,000 troops recently committed, he must realize that additional armed forces are only a stopgap measure in Afghanistan's downward spiral into an 'undergoverned' failed state. Similarly, as Pakistan's fragile and fractured civilian government continues to appease the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen with Taliban cultural values led by Baitullah Mehsud and others, it comes closer to the concept of a "misgoverned" failed state, possessing a small arsenal of nuclear arms. The problem for the …
Revisiting Downs' Issue-Attention Cycle: International Terrorism And U.S. Public Opinion, Karen K. Petersen
Revisiting Downs' Issue-Attention Cycle: International Terrorism And U.S. Public Opinion, Karen K. Petersen
Journal of Strategic Security
Lamenting the lack of public awareness of international events and U.S. foreign policy is not a particularly novel exercise; yet, explaining the process by which issues enter and exit the public realm remains a challenging endeavor. Despite contributions from researchers working in international relations and mass communication, explaining public inattentiveness continues to vex scholars. However, in his article, "Up and Down with Ecology: The 'Issue-Attention Cycle,'" Anthony Downs provides a parsimonious and tractable model of public opinion that can be applied to foreign policy issues.1 While Downs concerns himself exclusively with domestic issues, particularly environmental issues, his model has thepotential …
Guerilla Warfare & Law Enforcement: Combating The 21st Century Terrorist Cell Within The U.S., Richard J. Hughbank
Guerilla Warfare & Law Enforcement: Combating The 21st Century Terrorist Cell Within The U.S., Richard J. Hughbank
Journal of Strategic Security
Both domestic and international terrorist organizations employ guerrilla warfare tactics, techniques, and procedures. Thus, the ability to identify and defeat the members of these organizations, cripple their infrastructures, and disrupt their financial resources lies in the understanding of modern guerrilla warfare as it develops in the twenty-first century within the United States.3 The forms of asymmetric warfare4 adopted by domestic and international terrorist groups alike is no longer intended to gain simple media exposure or governmental manipulation; they want to make an overpowering impact by causing massive loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and are often motivated by …
The Tipping Point: Biological Terrorism, Scott Cary
The Tipping Point: Biological Terrorism, Scott Cary
Journal of Strategic Security
This article presents a strategic, operational, and tactical analysis of information currently available on the state of bio-weapons development by non-state actors, primarily Islamist jihadists. It discusses the evidence supporting a practical assessment that non-state actors have begun to acquire, and in the near-term intend to employ, bio-weapons. A pathogen and method of attack specifically designed to achieve the strategic goals of jihadists are presented as functional examples of the problem of the emerging global bio-weapons threat.Is a terrorist attack utilizing biological weapons a real threat? If so, is there a way to predict the circumstances under which it might …
Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller
Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller
Journal of Strategic Security
This article presents a dynamic decision support methodology forcounter-terrorism decision support. The initial sections introduce basic objectives and challenges of terrorism risk analysis and risk management. The remainder of the paper describes TRANSEC, a decision support framework for defining, validating, and monitoring strategies focused on managing terrorism risks to international transportation networks. The methodology and software tools underlying TRANSEC are applicable to other homeland security problems, such as critical infrastructure and border protection.
Al-Qaeda In The Lands Of The Islamic Maghreb, Gregory A. Smith
Al-Qaeda In The Lands Of The Islamic Maghreb, Gregory A. Smith
Journal of Strategic Security
This paper is organized into four chapters that focus on the terrorist group Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The four chapters examine different facets of the collective environment that have allowed AQIM to succeed and even thrive at times. The first chapter begins with Algeria’s war of independence with the French. The second chapter focuses on the nomadic Tuareg people. It seeks to show how the Tuaregs were deprived by French occupiers and how European colonization cost the Tuaregs access to vital trade routes used for centuries. The third chapter will very briefly examine Algeria’s …
Targeted Killing: Self-Defense, Preemption, And The War On Terrorism, Thomas Byron Hunter
Targeted Killing: Self-Defense, Preemption, And The War On Terrorism, Thomas Byron Hunter
Journal of Strategic Security
This paper assesses the parameters and utility of “targeted killing” in combating terrorism and its role within the norm of state self-defense in the international community. The author’s thesis is that, while targeted killing provides states with a method of combating terrorism, and while it is “effective” on a number of levels, it is inherently limited and not a panacea. The adoption and execution of such a program brings with it, among other potential pitfalls, political repercussions. Targeted killing is defined herein as the premeditated, preemptive, and intentional killing of an individual or individuals known or believed to represent a …
Research Note: Using The Iterate And Dots Databases, Peter A. Flemming, Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler
Research Note: Using The Iterate And Dots Databases, Peter A. Flemming, Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler
Journal of Strategic Security
For more than three decades, Vinyard Software's two ITERATE (International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events) datasets have set the standard in events research for terrorism researchers. It has recently been supplemented by the DOTS (Data on Terrorist Subjects) biographies project, which covers all terrorists, supporters, and other individuals mentioned in the ITERATE project.