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Overestimating Wireless Demand: Policy And Investment Implications Of Upward Bias In Mobile Data Forecasts, J. Armand Musey Cfa, Aalok Mehta

J. Armand Musey, CFA

In this paper, we present evidence of persistent errors in projections of wireless demand and examine the implications for wireless policy and investment. Mobile demand projections are relied upon in academic and government research and used for critically important telecommunications policy decisions, both domestically and internationally. The Federal Communications Commission, for example, used such projections to estimate a 275 MHz spectrum shortage by 2014 and featured such estimates in the U.S. National Broadband Plan as evidence for allocating additional spectrum for cellular services. The International Telecommunications Union Radiocommunication Sector endorsed in 2006 an estimate of a 1,280- to 1,720-MHz spectrum …