Law Commons^™

The Empirics Of Prison Growth: A Critical Review And Path Forward, John F. Pfaff

Faculty Scholarship

A growing empirical literature has sought to explain the forces behind the significant expansion of the U.S. prison population over the past thirty years. Unfortunately, the studies to date have suffered from important methodological, conceptual, and definitional problems that have significantly curtailed their ability to identify causal effects. In this Article, I examine several of the central limitations and discuss remedies. I start by reviewing the theories that investigators have sought to test. I then discuss the studies' empirical defects, such as failing to account for endogenous relationships, overlooking the risk of model dependency, ignoring complex dynamic relationships, using variables …