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No Bayesian Solution To The Transposition Fallacy: More Reason To Be Skeptical Of Statistical Proof Of Discrimination, Kingsley R. Browne

Hofstra Labor & Employment Law Journal

Statistical proof of discrimination often entails comparisons of the demographics of an employer’s work force with that of the relevant labor force. The statistical study yields a “p-value,” and if the p-value is below some pre-specified level, the disparity is deemed “statistically significant.” The p-value is often interpreted as the probability that the observed disparity was obtained by chance, but equating the p-value with the likelihood that chance caused the disparity is an example of the “transposition fallacy.” Recognizing this fallacy, some commentators have suggested the use of Bayesian methods, under which the probability of discrimination is estimated by incorporating …