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Washington University Jurisprudence Review

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Visualizing Probabilistic Proof, Enrique Guerra-Pujol Nov 2014

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof, Enrique Guerra-Pujol

Washington University Jurisprudence Review

The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, that is, in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.