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Full-Text Articles in Law
Probability, Policy And The Problem Of Reference Class, Robert J. Rhee
Probability, Policy And The Problem Of Reference Class, Robert J. Rhee
Faculty Scholarship
This short paper focuses on the problem of reference class in evidentiary assessment as it relates to probability and weight of evidence. The reluctance to inject mathematical formalism into the factfinding function is justified. Objective probability requires a reference class from which a proportion is derived. Probability assessments change with the reference class. If a proposition is subject to proportional comparison against two or more different references, their selection is often an inductive process. The advantage of objectivity and methodological rigor is illusory. A legal dispute is the search for a plausible understanding of the truth, and an overtly mathematized …
Revisiting 'Dreyfus': A More Complete Account Of A Trial By Mathematics, David H. Kaye
Revisiting 'Dreyfus': A More Complete Account Of A Trial By Mathematics, David H. Kaye
Journal Articles
Legal literature and case law depicts the infamous conviction of Alfred Dreyfus for treason and espionage in 1899 as a prime example of the irresistible power of even grossly fallacious mathematical demonstrations to overwhelm a legal tribunal. This essay shows that Dreyfus is not a case of mathematics run amok, unchecked and uncomprehended. To the contrary, the defects in the mathematical proof were dramatically exposed, and this evidence did not lead Dreyfus's judges to condemn him. This history undercuts the reliance of modern courts and commentators on Dreyfus as an indication or illustration of the alleged dangers of probability evidence …