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Forks Over Knives: Predictive Inconsistency In Criminal Justice Algorithmic Risk Assessment Tools, Travis Greene, Galit Shmueli, Jan Fell, Ching-Fu Lin, Han-Wei Liu

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision-making. Yet different, equally justifiable choices when developing, testing and deploying these socio-technical tools can lead to disparate predicted risk scores for the same individual. Synthesising diverse perspectives from machine learning, statistics, sociology, criminology, law, philosophy and economics, we conceptualise this phenomenon as predictive inconsistency. We describe sources of predictive inconsistency at different stages of algorithmic risk assessment tool development and deployment and consider how future technological developments may amplify predictive inconsistency. We argue, however, that in a diverse and …