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Full-Text Articles in Law
Regulating Financial Guarantors, Steven L. Schwarcz
Regulating Financial Guarantors, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
To improve financial regulation, scholars have engaged in extensive research over the past decade to try to understand why systemically important financial firms engage in excessive risk-taking. None of that research fully explains, however, the unusually excessive risk-taking by financial guarantors such as bond insurers, protection sellers under credit-default-swap (CDS) derivatives, credit enhancers in securitization transactions, and even issuers of standby letters of credit. With tens of trillions of dollars of financial guarantees outstanding, the potential for failure is massive. This Article argues that financial guarantor risk-taking is influenced by a previously unrecognized cognitive bias, which it calls “abstraction bias.” …
Rollover Risk: Ideating A U.S. Debt Default, Steven L. Schwarcz
Rollover Risk: Ideating A U.S. Debt Default, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
This article examines how a U.S. debt default might occur, how it could be avoided, its potential consequences if not avoided, and how those consequences could be mitigated. To that end, the article differentiates defaults caused by insolvency from defaults caused by illiquidity. The latter, which are potentiated by rollover risk (the risk that the government will be temporarily unable to borrow sufficient funds to repay its maturing debt), are not only plausible but have occurred in the past. Moreover, the ongoing controversy over the federal debt ceiling and the rise of the shadow-banking system make these types of defaults …
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Christoph Trebesch, Mitu Gulati
The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Christoph Trebesch, Mitu Gulati
Faculty Scholarship
The Greek debt restructuring of 2012 stands out in the history of sovereign defaults. It achieved very large debt relief—over 50 percent of 2012 GDP—with minimal financial disruption, using a combination of new legal techniques, exceptionally large cash incentives, and official sector pressure on key creditors. But it did so at a cost. The timing and design of the restructuring left money on the table from the perspective of Greece, created a large risk for European taxpayers, and set precedents—particularly in its very generous treatment of holdout creditors—that are likely to make future debt restructurings in Europe more difficult.
The Role Of The Imf In Future Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Report Of The Annenberg House Expert Group, Douglas G. Baird, Nicole Bollen, Lee C. Buchheit, Mitu Gulati, Anne O. Krueger, Fridrik Mar Balursson, Robert K. Rasmussen, David A. Skeel Jr., Sergei Storchak, Jeromin Settelmeyer
The Role Of The Imf In Future Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Report Of The Annenberg House Expert Group, Douglas G. Baird, Nicole Bollen, Lee C. Buchheit, Mitu Gulati, Anne O. Krueger, Fridrik Mar Balursson, Robert K. Rasmussen, David A. Skeel Jr., Sergei Storchak, Jeromin Settelmeyer
Faculty Scholarship
A meeting of international finance and insolvency experts was held on November 2, 2013 at the Annenberg House in Santa Monica, California. The meeting was co-hosted by the USC Law School and the Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands. The goal was to solicit the views of experts on the implications of the IMF’s April 26, 2013 paper captioned “Sovereign Debt Restructuring -- Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund’s Legal and Policy Framework”. The April 26 paper may signal a shift in IMF policies in the area of sovereign debt workouts. Although the Expert Group discussed a number of the ideas …
Marginalizing Risk, Steven L. Schwarcz
Marginalizing Risk, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
A major focus of finance is reducing risk on investments, a goal commonly achieved by dispersing the risk among numerous investors. Sometimes, however, risk dispersion can cause investors to underestimate and under-protect against risk. Risk can even be so widely dispersed that rational investors individually lack the incentive to monitor it. This Article examines the market failures resulting from risk dispersion and analyzes when government regulation may be necessary or appropriate to limit these market failures. The Article also examines how such regulation should be designed,including the extent to which it should limit risk dispersion in the first instance.
Shadow Banking, Financial Markets, And The Real Estate Sector, Steven L. Schwarcz
Shadow Banking, Financial Markets, And The Real Estate Sector, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
This is a relatively brief “firestarter” talk prepared by the author for the World Economic Forum’s Industry Partnership Strategists Meeting 2012 (held on October 3, 2012) on transformation of the real estate sector in light of ongoing shifts in the financial markets and broader global trends.
Fundamental Forces Driving United States And International Financial Regulations Reform, Lawrence G. Baxter
Fundamental Forces Driving United States And International Financial Regulations Reform, Lawrence G. Baxter
Faculty Scholarship
Multiple forces create a systemic crisis of the proportions of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Global and domestic financial reform is a difficult and perplexing task, one that is likely to take many years, and one that will surely continue to be shaped by a diverse range of forces. Recent measures remain incomplete and in some cases are even proving to be misdirected. This article considers seven fundamental forces shaping actions on future reform, specifically the (1) long term impact of the Crisis (and all financial crises); (2) increase in the “financialization” of the global economy, seemingly disproportionate to …
Shadow Banking, Financial Markets, And The Real Estate Sector, Steven L. Schwarcz
Shadow Banking, Financial Markets, And The Real Estate Sector, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
This is a relatively brief “firestarter” talk prepared by the author for the World Economic Forum’s Industry Partnership Strategists Meeting 2012 (held on October 3, 2012) on transformation of the real estate sector in light of ongoing shifts in the financial markets and broader global trends.
Financial Industry Self-Regulation: Aspiration And Reality, Steven L. Schwarcz
Financial Industry Self-Regulation: Aspiration And Reality, Steven L. Schwarcz
Faculty Scholarship
This essay on financial industry self-regulation responds to Professor Saule Omarova’s recent article on that topic, Wall Street as Community of Fate: Toward Financial Industry Self-Regulation, 159 U. PA. L. REV. 411 (2011).