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Department of Materials Science and Engineering Publications

Existential risk

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Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Micronutrient Availability In Alternative Foods During Agricultural Catastrophes, David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce Oct 2018

Micronutrient Availability In Alternative Foods During Agricultural Catastrophes, David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce

Department of Materials Science and Engineering Publications

Several catastrophes could block the sun, including asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruption, and nuclear war with the burning of cities (nuclear winter). Previous work has analyzed alternate food supplies (e.g., mushrooms growing on dead trees, bacteria growing on natural gas). This was shown to be technically capable of feeding everyone with macronutrients (protein, carbohydrates, and lipids) and minerals, although economics and politics remain uncertain. The present work analyzes vitamin availability in such alternative food scenarios. The vitamin content of various alternate foods is compared to the US recommended daily allowance (RDA) as well as the average requirement defined by the …


A National Pragmatic Safety Limit For Nuclear Weapon Quantities, Joshua M. Pearce, David C. Denkenberger Jun 2018

A National Pragmatic Safety Limit For Nuclear Weapon Quantities, Joshua M. Pearce, David C. Denkenberger

Department of Materials Science and Engineering Publications

This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic. The only effect considered is nuclear winter (“nuclear autumn” in the low weapons limits) and the resultant effects on the aggressor nation. First, the ability of low nuclear weapon limits is probed for maintaining deterrence in the worst-case scenario of attacking the most-populous nation. Second, the ability of aggressor nations to feed themselves is assessed without trade and industry resultant from a nuclear attack causing “nuclear autumn” (10% global agricultural shortfall). …