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The Timing Of Insider Trading And Management Forecast Credibility, Xiaozhe Gu
The Timing Of Insider Trading And Management Forecast Credibility, Xiaozhe Gu
Accounting Dissertations
In this paper, I study how past insider trading patterns affect management forecast credibility. I first hypothesize and find that, due to litigation concerns, executives are unlikely to use a “pump-and-dump” strategy to maximize trading profits. Instead, they issue more accurate and conservative management earnings forecasts before insider sales. I then document that insider sales after forecasts have signaling content. Specifically, firms where a higher fraction of insider sales occurs shortly after the forecast enjoy higher forecast credibility in the future. This effect is more pronounced when firms are difficult to value and less pronounced when firms show traces of …
An Empirical Test Of Learning In Management Earnings Forecasts, Yuan Shi
An Empirical Test Of Learning In Management Earnings Forecasts, Yuan Shi
Accounting Dissertations
My dissertation examines whether managers issuing earnings guidance learn from the forecast errors in prior earnings guidance issued by them. Using data on quarterly earnings forecasts issued by managers during the period from 2001 to 2016, I find results that are consistent with managers learning from their previous forecast errors to improve their forecast accuracy. However, the intensity of the managers' reactions to previous forecast errors is asymmetric. Consistent with prior literature that emphasizes the importance of meeting or beating forecasts for managers, certain managers that miss their own forecasts tend to be conservative enough in their future forecasts to …