Business Commons^™

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …

Cross-Cryptocurrency Return Predictability, Li Guo, Bo Sang, Jun Tu, Yu Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using the minute-frequency data on Binance, we find strong evidence of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. The lagged returns of other cryptocurrencies serve as significant predictors of focal cryptocurrencies up to ten minutes, in line with slow information diffusion. The results are robust across various methods, including the adaptive LASSO and principal component analysis. Furthermore, a long-short portfolio formed on the past returns of cryptocurrencies can generate a daily return of 2.16% out-of-sample after accounting for transaction costs, indicating sizable economic value of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability.

Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze over 2.6 million news articles and propose a novel measure of joint news coverage of firms. The measure strongly and negatively predicts market returns, with a monthly R-squared of 3.93% in sample and 6.52% out of sample. The relation is causal, robust to existing predictors, and is especially strong when market uncertainty is high or when market frictions are large. At the firm level, joint news coverage is associated with a 20.3% increase in EDGAR downloads by new IPs from the investor bases of the other covered firms. Our evidence suggests that joint news triggers investor attention spillover …

Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Jiangyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Disagreement measures are known to predict cross-sectional stock returns but fail to predict market returns. This paper proposes a partial least squares disagreement index by aggregating information across individual disagreement measures and shows that this index significantly predicts market returns both in- and out-ofsample. Consistent with the theory in Atmaz and Basak (2018), the disagreement index asymmetrically predicts market returns with greater power in high sentiment periods, is positively associated with investor expectations of market returns, predicts market returns through a cash flow channel, and can explain the positive volume-volatility relationship.

Time-Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Time-series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return, and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows, however, that asset-by-asset time-series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and non-parametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and …

Center Of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?, Gennaro Bernile, Fei Gao, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether the distribution of trades along the set of strike prices of option contracts on the same stock contains information about underlying price discovery. We show that option traders' demand for delta exposure drives the volume-weighted average strike-spot price ratio (VWKS). In turn, we find that VWKS predicts underlying returns and anticipates the flow of fundamental information about the stock. The return predictability is greater but not limited to stocks with higher information asymmetries and arbitrage costs, and becomes stronger ahead of value relevant news. Overall, options trading appears to play an important informational role for underlying markets.

The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).

News Co-Occurrence, Attention Spillover, And Return Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the effect of investor attention spillover on stock return predictability. Using a novel measure, the News Network Triggered Attention index (NNTA), we find that NNTA negatively predicts market returns with a monthly in(out)-of-sample R-square of 5.97% (5.80%). In the cross-section, a long-short portfolio based on news co-occurrence generates a significant monthly alpha of 68 basis points. The results are robust to the inclusion of alternative attention proxies, sentiment measures, other news- and information-based predictors, across recession and expansion periods. We further validate the attention spillover effect by showing that news co-mentioning leads to greater increases in Google and …

Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample R-squares are 0.96% and 1.72% in good and bad times, or 1.28% and 1.41% in NBER economic expansions and recessions, respectively. The TMR predictability pattern holds in the cross-section of U.S. stocks and the international markets. Our study shows that the absence of return predictability in good times, an important finding of recent studies, is largely driven by …

Essays On Investor Sentiment In Asset Pricing, Liya Chu

Dissertations and Theses Collection

The dissertation addresses three topics on investor sentiment in asset pricing.

The first essay investigates the impact of market sentiment on the recent debate on equity premium forecasting. Particularly, market sentiment may break the link between fundamental economic predictors and equity premium. We find that economic predictors tend to lose their power and various remedies proposed in recent studies, such as non-negativity constraints, no longer work during high sentiment periods. In contrast, economic predictors actually do have strong performances even without using any such remedies, as long as the sentiment stays low enough so as not to distort the link. …

Upper Bounds On Return Predictability, Dashan Huang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Can the degree of predictability found in data be explained by existing asset pricing models? We provide two theoretical upper bounds on the R² of predictive regressions. Using data on the market portfolio and component portfolios, we find that the empirical R² are significantly greater than the theoretical upper bounds. Our results suggest that the most promising direction for future research should aim to identify new state variables that are highly correlated with stock returns instead of seeking more elaborate stochastic discount factors.

International Volatility Risk And Chinese Stock Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Yangshu Liu, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risks for the daily Chinese stock market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indexes of seven major international markets as our international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous Chinese daily overnight stock returns, while positively forecast next-day Chinese daytime stock returns. The US volatility risk (ΔVIX) is particularly powerful in forecasting Chinese stock returns, and plays a dominant role relative to the other six international volatility measures. ΔVIX's forecasting power remains strong after controlling for Chinese domestic volatility and is robust …

Local Business Cycles And Local Liquidity, Gennaro Bernile, George Korniotis, Alok Kumar, Qin Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines whether state-level economic conditions affect the liquidity of local firms. We find that liquidity levels of local stocks are higher (lower) when the local economy has performed well (poorly). This relation is stronger when local financing constraints are more binding, the local information environment is more opaque, and local institutional ownership levels and trading intensity are higher. Overall the evidence supports the notion that the geographical segmentation of U.S. capital markets generates predictable patterns in local liquidity.

The Information Content Of Option Ratios, Benjamin M. Blau, Nga Nguyen, Ryan J. Whitby

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put–Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels …

An Analysis Of Bitcoin Market Efficiency Through Measures Of Short-Horizon Return Predictability And Market Liquidity, William L. Brown

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoins have the potential to fundamentally change the way value is transferred globally. Their rapid adoption over the past four years has led many to consider the possible results of such a technology. To be a viable currency, however, it is imperative that the market for trading Bitcoins is efficient. By examining the changes in availability of predictable outsized returns and market liquidity over time, this paper examines historical Bitcoin market efficiency and establishes correlations between market liquidity, price predictability, and return data. The results provide insight into the turbulent nature of Bitcoin market efficiency over the past years, but …

Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy C. Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China’s economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …

The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.

The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.

How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …

Institutional Investors And Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by short-term institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.

Which Shorts Are Informed?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a long daily panel of short sales using proprietary NYSE order data. From 2000 to 2004, shorting accounts for more than 12.9% of NYSE volume, suggesting that shorting constraints are not widespread. As a group, these short sellers are well informed. Heavily shorted stocks underperform lightly shorted stocks by a risk-adjusted average of 1.16% over the following 20 trading days (15.6% annualized). Institutional nonprogram short sales are the most informative; stocks heavily shorted by institutions underperform by 1.43% the next month (19.6% annualized). The results indicate that, on average, short sellers are important contributors to efficient stock prices.

Two Essays On Institutional Investors, Hoang Nguyen

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two essays investigating the trading by institutions and its impact on the stock market. In the first essay, I investigate why changes in institutional breadth predict return. I first show that changes in breadth are positively associated with abnormal returns over the following four quarters. I then demonstrate that this return predictability can be attributed to the information about the firms' future operating performance. When I examine different types of institutions independently, I find that the predictive power varies across the population of institutions. More specifically, institutions that follow active management style are better able to …

Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using CRSP stock and mutual fund data, we find strong evidence for reversals at the style level (e.g., large value, small growth, etc.). There are significant excess and risk-adjusted returns for stocks in styles characterized by the worst past returns and net inflows. We also find evidence for momentum and positive feedback trading at the style level. These value and momentum effects are driven neither by fundamental risk nor by stock-level reversals and momentum. Taken together, the results are consistent with the style-level positive feedback trading model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003).