Business Commons^™

A Long Spell Of Uncertainty, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

We find ourselves in a period of sustained economic uncertainty. Today, like 6 months ago, the U.S. economy is on the brink of a recession. Weakness in lending activity, coupled with weakness in the housing sector and related manufacturing industries has stymied economic growth since late 2007. At times, recession seems imminent. But, the official measures, such as quarterly gross domestic product, do not clearly signal that the economy is contracting. Further, prices are rising rapidly for food and energy. That is the uncertainty. Will 2008 be remembered as a recession year, or as a period of disappointing but slow …

Risk And Recovery, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

The crisis in the housing and financial sectors has led to a dramatic slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Fourth quarter GDP growth and job growth are expected to be anemic and the economy may fall into recession in 2008. Indeed, several of the dozen members of the Nebraska Business Forecast Council do believe that the U.S. economy will likely slip into recession during 2008. However, the overall consensus of the Council is that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession. Economic growth will be slow in the first three quarters of 2008 before recovering in late 2008 and 2009.

A Soft Landing And A Long Layover, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Philip Baker, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson

Economics Faculty Publications

The U.S. economy achieved a soft landing in 2006. This was a desirable outcome. The economy needed a break from its rapid, and potentially inflationary, growth in 2004 and 2005, before taking off again. But, that new flight has been delayed. The aggregate economy has remained mired in slow growth in the first half of 2007. Pockets of the economy, such as the labor market, have been strong, but a weak housing sector has limited overall growth. Further, signs point to one or two more quarters of weaker growth, before the economy is able to take off again.

A Soft Landing, Steady Growth, And Accelerating Farm Income, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Nick Hernandez, Bruce Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

After years of accelerating growth, the U.S. economy achieved a soft landing in 2006. The rate of economic growth remained positive but slowed sufficiently to reduce inflation pressures and the need for further interest rate increases. At the same time the economy remained strong enough to continue the current expansion which has been in place since late 2001. Such a soft landing is vital because it should allow the economy to continue to expand for years to come, but with moderate inflation.

Pillars Of Growth In Nebraska's Non-Metropolitan Economy, Eric Thompson, Ernie Goss, Chris Decker, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bruce Johnson, Ben Schmitz, Julian Neira, Pavel Jeutang

Economics Faculty Publications

Agriculture is a critical part of Nebraska’s economy, and changes in the fortunes of agriculture play an important role in the success of the state’s non-metropolitan regions. Trends toward consolidation and rising productivity in agriculture, however, have raised concerns about the future of non-metropolitan Nebraska. Some citizens and policymakers have begun to wonder if the economy can create sufficient job opportunities for non-metropolitan residents. The answer to this question depends not only upon the relative strength of the agricultural sector, but also upon the presence of other industries that can join agriculture as pillars for employment growth in non-metropolitan Nebraska. …

Manufacturing Rebounds, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Nick Hernandez, Bruce Johnson, Ken Lemke, Donis Petersan, Franz Schwarz, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

National economic conditions will continue to favor growth over the next three years, including sustained increases in manufacturing employment. Higher energy prices, particularly for oil, gasoline, and natural gas, will impact the economy, but probably only will moderate economic growth rather than cause a significant slowdown.

After rapid growth in 2004 and 2005, growth in real gross domestic product is expected to moderate in 2006-2008, due to higher long-term interest rates as well as higher energy prices. Real gross domestic product will grow 3 percent in 2006 and fall to 2.5 percent growth in later years. The housing market will …

Continued Growth In Nebraska, Saeed Ahmad, John Austin, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Donis Petersan, Franz Schwarz, Eric Thomson, Keith K. Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

National economic conditions will continue to favor growth over the next three years. Increased business investment will combine with rising industrial production, expanding exports, and moderate increases in consumer spending to grow the economy. The rate of inflation is expected to increase as well. The rate of real (inflation-adjusted) growth will moderate compared to strong economic growth during 2004. Real gross domestic product will grow 3 percent to 3.5 percent over the next three years. High oil prices will remain a drain on the economy, siphoning spending from domestically produced goods and services. Fuel prices are expected to remain at …

Sustained Growth In Nebraska, Saeed Ahmad, John Austin, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Mike Lundeen, Donis Petersan, Franz Schwarz, Eric Thompson, Keith K. Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

National Macroeconomic conditions are favorable for future expansion of income, employment, and revenue in Nebraska. In particular, the U.S. economy is now in the heart of an expansion expected to persist over the three year forecast period. The principal engine of growth will be a sustained expansion in private sector investment and consumption demand. However, the rate of growth in the national economy likely will be moderate rather than rapid. At least three factors will act to moderate growth. The first is higher energy prices. Rapid growth in global demand is expected to keep prices for oil and natural gas …