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The First Sign: Detecting Future Financial Fraud From The Ipo Prospectus, Lisa Spadaccini Anderson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In this study, I examine whether it is possible to predict future financial statement fraud using disclosure content prior to the fraud. Specifically, I employ a machine learning algorithm to construct a unique measure based on the lexical cues embedded within a firm’s first public disclosure, the Management’s Discussion and Analysis section of the S-1 filing, during the Initial Public Offering process. I use this measure to predict whether a firm that is not already committing fraud will commit fraud within five years of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) that results in an Accounting or Enforcement Release (AAER). I find …