Business Commons^™

Detecting Fraud In Bankrupt Municipalities Using Benford's Law, Allyn H. Haynes

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis explores if fraud or mismanagement in municipal governments can be diagnosed or detected in advance of their bankruptcies by financial statement analysis using Benford’s Law. Benford’s Law essentially states that the distribution of first digits from real world observations would not be uniform, but instead follow a trend where numbers with lower first digits (1, 2…) occur more frequently than those with higher first digits (…8,9). If a data set does not follow Benford’s distribution, it is likely that the data has been manipulated. This widespread phenomenon has been used as a tool to detect anomalies in data …