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Session 7: Would Ai Stocks Estimate Be As Surprised To Usda Stock Reports As Private Market Analysts?, Asif Mahmud Chowdhury, Matthew Elliott
Session 7: Would Ai Stocks Estimate Be As Surprised To Usda Stock Reports As Private Market Analysts?, Asif Mahmud Chowdhury, Matthew Elliott
SDSU Data Science Symposium
Would AI Stocks Estimate Be as Surprised to USDA Stock Reports as Private Market Analysts?
Keywords: Machine Learning, Random Forest, Agricultural Commodities Market, Informational Impact, Efficient Market Hypothesis.
The USDA survey-based Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are the primary source of information regarding the relative supply of U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat for the last fifty years. Previous research has examined the accuracy of the USDA stock reports and their relevancy to the market, given alternative sources of estimates (e.g., Isengildina-Massa et al., 2021). For example, private industry analysts also estimate expected quarterly grain stock reports before USDA releases their reports. …