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Full-Text Articles in Business
Tactical Asset Allocation And Presidential Elections, James L. Grant, Emery A. Trahan
Tactical Asset Allocation And Presidential Elections, James L. Grant, Emery A. Trahan
James L. Grant
We analyze tactical asset allocation decisions around presidential elections using traditional methodology and then in the context of an efficient frontier analysis rather than the traditional stock-only or bond-only allocations in prior literature. To our knowledge, this is the first paper in the literature that addresses asset returns around presidential elections in a mean-variance efficient frontier framework. We find that the efficient frontier is sensitive to presidential time periods, with Democrats providing the best risk-reward opportunities over the long term, while Republicans provide better opportunities over the past quarter century.
The Hedge Fund Explosion: Is The Bang Worth The Buck?, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, James L. Grant
The Hedge Fund Explosion: Is The Bang Worth The Buck?, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, James L. Grant
James L. Grant
Any casual following of the financial news would reveal that hedge funds have experienced phenomenal growth, especially over the last fifteen years. In terms of numbers, there were an estimated 8000 hedge funds in 2005, up from only 500 in 1990. During this fifteen-year period assets under management have grown from an estimated $50 billion to $1.5 trillion. Moreover, the hedgefund industry has spawned a “fund of funds” business, which has slowly become the preferred way of investing in hedge funds, especially for institutional investors. Today, the number of these combination funds is estimated at about 4000. Until recently, hedge …
A Survey Of Demographics And Performance In The Hedge Fund Industry, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, James L. Grant
A Survey Of Demographics And Performance In The Hedge Fund Industry, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, James L. Grant
James L. Grant
We investigate hedge fund demographics using data from the Alternative Asset Center (AAC) and then hedge fund performance over the twelve years since inception of the Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Indices (HFI, 1994-2005). We find that hedge funds are largely domiciled “offshore” while hedge-fund managers are located primarily in the United States, particularly New York, California, Illinois, Connecticut and Florida. We find that the annualized performance of hedge funds as an “asset class” is about the same as that of U.S. equities (S&P 500). That being said, the real benefit of hedge funds lies in risk management as the volatility …
Estimating The Required Return In A World Of Heightened Uncertainty: Emphasizing The Equity Risk Premium, James L. Grant, James A. Albate, Chris Rowberry
Estimating The Required Return In A World Of Heightened Uncertainty: Emphasizing The Equity Risk Premium, James L. Grant, James A. Albate, Chris Rowberry
James L. Grant
Heightened uncertainty over the past five years--due to the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble, the recession of 2001, the September 11th attacks, accounting scandals, and the oil shocks of 2005--has brought new challenges for securities analysts and portfolio managers. This observation is particularly relevant for fundamental equity managers using price relative and/or discounted cash flow (DCF) models. While correctly worrying about values of cash flow input (dividends, free cash flow, economic earnings) to DCF models, portfolio managers must be especially aware of risk factors that impact the required return or discount rate, and relatedly, market valuation multiples. This discount rate …
Adr Characteristics And Performance In International And Global Indexes, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, Lal Chugh, James L. Grant
Adr Characteristics And Performance In International And Global Indexes, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, Lal Chugh, James L. Grant
James L. Grant
This study looks at the characteristics and performance of ADRs in international and global indexes. We find that ADRs in EAFE are tilted toward three common factors: giant cap, high dividend yield, and U.K. stocks. In terms of risk-adjusted performance, we find that ADRs provide inefficient diversification for US investors, as tradeoffs of return and risk are better with portfolio combinations of the S&P500 and the S&P Global 700, as compared with portfolio combinations of the S&P500 and an ADR breakout of the Global 700. Our findings on ADR characteristics are consistent with prior research, while our performance findings are …
In Search Of Certain Earnings: Applying The Ace Portfolio Concept To Sectors, James L. Grant, Chris Rowberry
In Search Of Certain Earnings: Applying The Ace Portfolio Concept To Sectors, James L. Grant, Chris Rowberry
James L. Grant
Sector composites that have highly stable earnings streams allow the portfolio manager or analyst to derive “earnings certain” sector risk premiums. ACE (Approximately Certain Earnings) Sectors represent such baskets. Since sector pricing is influenced by earnings variability, obtaining risk premiums from standard sectors is contaminated. With knowledge of an EPS Stability measure, a composite engine, and the proprietary G-Model (or like DCF framework), we can discover companies within each sector that exhibit highly certain earnings. In practice, ACE Sectors can be used to derive current/historical “earnings certain” sector risk premiums, enhance sector rotation strategies, obtain sector implied growth rates, make …
Active Investing In Strategic Acquirers Using An Eva Style Analysis, James L. Grant, Emery A. Trahan
Active Investing In Strategic Acquirers Using An Eva Style Analysis, James L. Grant, Emery A. Trahan
James L. Grant
Employing an EVA style classification, we examine whether active investors (such as hedge funds and other long-short investors) can develop an alpha-generating strategy by classifying acquisitions based on the pre-acquisition EVA style quadrant of the acquirers. Over a recent ten-year period, the announcement evidence suggests that acquisitions across all style quadrants generate negative risk-adjusted returns: wherein the magnitude of economic gains from shorting acquirers is determined by EVA style characteristics; namely wealth creators or wealth destroyers. Moreover, we find that the potential for longing gains on targets of acquiring firms is also captured by EVA style.