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A Simple Method For The Construction Of Empirical Confidence Limits For Economic Forecasts, William (Bill) H. Williams, M. L. Goodman
A Simple Method For The Construction Of Empirical Confidence Limits For Economic Forecasts, William (Bill) H. Williams, M. L. Goodman
Publications and Research
A simple method for the construction of empirical confidence intervals for time series forecasts is described. The procedure is to go through the series making a forecast from each point in time. The comparison of these forecasts with the known actual observations will yield an empirical distribution of forecasting errors. This distribution can then be used to set confidence intervals for subsequent forecasts. The technique appears to be particularly useful when the mechanism generating the series cannot be fully identified from the available data or when limits based on more standard considerations are difficult to obtain.
Analysis And Prediction Of Telephone Demand In Local Geographic Areas, Douglas M. Dunn, William (Bill) H. Williams, W. Allen Spivey
Analysis And Prediction Of Telephone Demand In Local Geographic Areas, Douglas M. Dunn, William (Bill) H. Williams, W. Allen Spivey
Publications and Research
An approach to forecasting the demand or local area telephone service is presented in this paper. The specific problem discussed is the fore casting of main stations in three Michigan metropolitan areas. Several different statistical models are used. The first class of models introduced uses adaptive exponential smoothing and is based solely on the past history of the time series involved. Although appropriate data at the local area level are very difficult to obtain, two exogenous time series related to household formations are used to construct more elaborate models for one of the areas. The various models are evaluated by …
A Statistical Grouping Of Corporations By Their Financial Characteristics., William (Bill) H. Williams, Michael L. Goodman
A Statistical Grouping Of Corporations By Their Financial Characteristics., William (Bill) H. Williams, Michael L. Goodman
Publications and Research
It appears to a widely held view that corporations with similar operational characteristics ought to have similar financial characteristics. For example, one might expect that the financial characteristics of two drug companies would be similar. This seems entirely reasonable. Unfortunately however, there does not appear to be any quantitative analysis of this point in the literature. Furthermore, discussions with our financial colleagues lead to the conclusion that, if such financial differentiation of corporations were possible, it is by no means obvious what the variables of differentiation would be. Consequently, such an analysis was undertaken and is described in this paper. …