Business Commons^™

Central Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Central Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

The Central Minnesota planning area is expected to experience a slowing of economic growth over the next several months according to predictions of the Central Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The leading index fell by 2.90 points in the most recent period, with three components producing negative readings. Weakness in a general measure of statewide business conditions along with slowing residential building permits in the St. Cloud area helped tip the index down this quarter. An increase in initial jobless claims in Central Minnesota also had a negative impact on the LEI in the third quarter. An uptick …

Northeast Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Northeast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

A deceleration of economic growth in Northeast Minnesota is expected over the next several months according to the predictions of the Northeast Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Two of the five components of the LEI increased as the overall index fell by 1.36 points in the third quarter. An increase in new filings of incorporation in the Northeast Minnesota planning area and lower initial jobless claims had a positive impact on the LEI, while recent weakness in a general measure of statewide business conditions and a fall in a supply managers’ survey helped drive the index lower. A …

Northwest Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Northwest Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

The Northwest Minnesota planning area economy is expected to continue to grow at a pace that is somewhat below normal over the next several months according to the predictions of the St. Cloud State University (SCSU) Northwest Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Two of the five components of the leading index were lower in the third quarter, as the LEI fell by 0.81 points. A declining Rural Mainstreet Index (which signals a more challenging macroeconomic environment for rural America) and weaker consumer sentiment helped drive the index lower. Lower initial jobless claims and rising new filings for incorporation …

Southeast Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Southeast Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

Acceleration of economic growth in Southeast Minnesota is expected over the next several months according to the most recent prediction of the Southeast Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). After a quarter in which the LEI experienced a 3.18 point decline, the Southeast Minnesota leading index reversed course by rising 2.34 points in the third quarter of 2016. The increased LEI was led by a rise in the number of residential building permits in Rochester as well as higher new filings of incorporation and LLC in the Southeast Minnesota planning area. Three components of the LEI had negative readings …

Twin Cities Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Twin Cities Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

A slower pace of economic growth is expected over the next several months in the Twin Cities according to the prediction of the St. Cloud State University Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI fell 5.70 points in the third quarter after a nearly neutral reading in the previous quarter. Four of the five index components decreased in the third quarter. Lower initial claims for unemployment insurance were the only index component that had a positive impact on this quarter’s LEI. Weakness in two general measures of statewide business conditions had a negative effect on …

Southwest Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2016, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

Southwest Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

Normal economic growth in Southwest Minnesota is expected over the next several months according to the predictions of the St. Cloud State University (SCSU) Southwest Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Two of four LEI components were positive in the third quarter. An increase in new filings of incorporation and LLC and a jump in Mankato residential building permits made favorable contributions to the LEI this quarter. An increase in initial jobless claims and weakness in the rural outlook weighed on the index. After rising 1.27 points in the second quarter, the Southwest Minnesota LEI was essentially flat in …

The Challenge Of Regulatory Excellence, Cary Coglianese

All Faculty Scholarship

Regulation is a high-stakes enterprise marked by tremendous challenges and relentless public pressure. Regulators are expected to protect the public from harms associated with economic activity and technological change without unduly impeding economic growth or efficiency. Regulators today also face new demands, such as adapting to rapidly changing and complex financial instruments, the emergence of the sharing economy, and the potential hazards of synthetic biology and other innovations. Faced with these challenges, regulators need a lodestar for what constitutes high-quality regulation and guidance on how to improve their organizations’ performance. In the book Achieving Regulatory Excellence, leading regulatory experts …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: December 16, 2016, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.32% during November of 2016. The decline in the LEI-N, which predicts economic activity six months in the future, suggests that economic growth will be modest in Nebraska during the first half of 2017. Four of six components of the LEI-N were negative during November. Airline passenger counts and manufacturing hours both declined during the month. There also was another increase in the value of the U.S. dollar during November, a negative for export-oriented businesses in Nebraska. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose during the month. Two components of the indicator …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 18, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

After a quarter in which local firms’ future outlook weakened considerably, the area economy appears to have rebounded in recent months.

Despite some anecdotal evidence of recent regional layoffs, quantitative and qualitative indicators of local economic performance point to improved future conditions in the St. Cloud area. Even though the St. Cloud area labor force was reported to have declined over the past 12 months, area payroll employment (this is obtained from a different source of data than the labor force measure) grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate.

Construction, retail trade and educational and health sectors once again led …

Do Credit Ratings Matter? An Examination Of The Relationship Between Sovereign Ratings And Capital Flows Pre And Post Financial Crisis, Greg Violante

Economics Department Student Scholarship

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and international capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). More specifically, it analyzes how ratings impact capital flows (FDI and portfolio investment) before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This study breaks the data into two samples, pre-crisis (1995-2006), and the post crisis (2007-2015). After using a System GMM method for 20 EMEs, the paper compares the pre- and post- financial crisis credit rating coefficients. The results indicate that the ratings have become more impactful overtime, for both FDI and portfolio investment, although the coefficients are not statistically different. Interestingly however, …

Capabilities, Human Development, And Design Thinking: A Framework For Gender-Sensitive Entrepreneurship Programs, Tonia Warnecke

Faculty Publications

This paper discusses the ways that capabilities and human development theory can guide the creation of entrepreneurship programs, utilizing a framework of human-centered design thinking. It is well known that a variety of institutional factors shape gender outcomes and gender inequality within entrepreneurship, particularly with regard to necessity versus opportunity entrepreneurship and informal versus formal sector entrepreneurship. Failure to understand the diversity of entrepreneurial activity among women, and the connection (or lack thereof) of such activity to human freedom, leads to biased entrepreneurship programs. This paper links social economic theory and practice by: (1) discussing the ways that capabilities and …

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …

Winning And Other Determinants Of Revenue In North America's Major Professional Sports Leagues, John Charles Bradbury

Faculty and Research Publications

This study investigates recent determinants of revenue in North America’s four major professional sports leagues. Estimates reveal that revenue is positively associated with winning in baseball (MLB), basketball (NBA), and hockey (NHL), but not in football (NFL). The returns to winning are not diminishing as commonly assumed, which casts doubt on the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, and differences across leagues are consistent with revenue sharing arrangements. Estimates also indicate a strong negative relationship between stadium age and revenue, which is consistent with observed rapid replacement of sports stadiums. The results have several important implications for economic models of sports leagues.

Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore presents an interesting case of how a country achieves dynamic economic development and innovation through the "invitation" strategy of a business hub. Despite being a small city-state with limited domestic market size and no meaningful hinterland or natural resources to speak of, Singapore has managed to transform its economy dramatically over the past 50 years by leveraging the strengths of other economies. Specifically, it has been able to attract (or "invite") various types of productive resources, including foreign capital, foreign technology and foreign workers (both skilled and unskilled) to make up for what it lacks. This has helped Singapore …

Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A crowded trade emerges when speculators' positions are large relative to the asset's liquidity, making exit difficult. We study this problem of recent regulatory concern by focusing on short-selling. We show that days to cover (DTC), the ratio of short interest to trading volume, measures the costliness of exiting crowded trades. Crowding is an important concern as short-sellers avoid illiquid stocks, which we establish using an instrumental-variables strategy involving staggered stock market decimalization reforms. Arbitrageurs require a premium to enter into such trades as a strategy shorting high DTC stocks and buying low DTC stocks generates a 1.2% monthly return. …

Initiative And Referendum: A Maine Odyssey, Charles A. Scontras

Bureau of Labor Education

Maine is no stranger to the nation’s battles involving the development of the tools of direct democracy and how to use them. Since the citizen initiative and referendum were passed in late 1908, Mainers have used “the power of the people” to vote directly on many laws, bypassing the Legislature. Now, after more than 100 years in use, the initiative process may be facing a test: Gov. Paul LePage is preparing blueprints to use the initiative in an attempt to change the state’s welfare system and reduce the income tax — victories denied to him in the Legislature. It’s a …

Federal Home Loan Bank Advances And Bank And Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence From The Stock Market, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB-reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 19, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

A Strange Revolution: Mock Compliance And The Failure Of The Oecd’S International Tax Transparency Regime, Richard Woodward

Books/Book Chapters

No abstract provided.

Gleaning As A Transformational Business Model For Solidarity With The Poor And Marginalized, Bruce D. Baker

SPU Works

“Gleaning” refers to the mandate within the Mosaic Law that harvesters should leave behind “gleanings” for the sake of the poor who subsist on the literal and figurative margins of society. Although this biblical mandate is generally neglected and considered irrelevant in modern business practice, it holds powerful lessons to help guide modern businesses into transformational solidarity with the poor and marginalized. This paper interprets the biblical significance of gleaning, to discern how the principles of gleaning, though rooted in ancient agrarian culture, might be applicable to modern business which is generally far removed from agriculture. The exegesis and analysis …

Consumer Anger And Brand Reputation, Kimberly Legocki, Kristen Walker

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble

Research Collection School of Economics

Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market …

The Impact Of Urban Sprawl On Journey To Work Times For Mass Transit And All Other Commuters In The United States: A Research Note, Thomas E. Lambert, Hokey Min, Kyle Dorriere

Faculty Scholarship

As government budgets get tighter, there has been considerable public outcry about the continued investment in public mass transit systems and their financial viability. Amid this outcry, a number of studies have been conducted to determine which factors influence the use and efficiency of publicly-funded mass transit systems. These factors include population density and less sprawl (or greater urban compactness). However, their impact on mass transit usage is somewhat contradictory in that the heavy concentration of populations in the urban area and greater compactness is believed to increase mass transit usage due to a bigger number of potential passengers. In …

A Roadmap For Reducing Gun Violence In America, Daniel Webster

Center for Policy Research

How do you reduce gun violence in America? It seems rather daunting. I’m going to take you through some key things I think we can do to have far less gun violence in America

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 18, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Despite strong employment growth in the St. Cloud area, local firms’ future outlook has weakened considerably in recent months. Employment grew 2.9 percent over the past 12 months, demonstrating the area’s ability to create jobs in the midst of a regional labor shortage. Construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and educational and health sectors led the area in employment growth while manufacturing, wholesale trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and information industries shed jobs. The leading economic indicator series fell 0.42 percent in the last quarter. Surveyed firms are less optimistic about future business activity. Local firms expect …

How To Fly A Horse: The Secret History Of Creation, Invention, And Discovery (Book Review), Kevin Timmer

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Reviewed Title: How to Fly a Horse: The Secret History of Creation, Invention, and Discovery by Kevin Ashton. New York: Doubleday, 2015. 336 pages. ISBN: 9780385538596.

Textual Analysis And Machine Leaning: Crack Unstructured Data In Finance And Accounting, Li Guo, Feng Shi, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In finance and accounting, relative to quantitative methods traditionally used, textual analysis becomes popular recently despite of its substantially less precise manner. In an overview of the literature, we describe various methods used in textual analysis, especially machine learning. By comparing their classification performance, we find that neural network outperforms many other machine learning techniques in classifying news category. Moreover, we highlight that there are many challenges left for future development of textual analysis, such as identifying multiple objects within one single document.

Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes systematic risk stemming from the possible occurrence of price bubbles and measures the impact of this additional risk factor on asset prices. Historical stock market behavior and recent empirical experience have led economists and policy makers to acknowledge that price bubbles in financial markets do occur and need to be accounted for in risk analysis. New econometric tools for analyzing mildly explosive behavior (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007; Phillips et al., 2011) have made it possible to detect the presence of bubbles in data and to date stamp their origination and collapse, providing empirical confirmation of such episodes …