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Full-Text Articles in Business
Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan
Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan
Research outputs 2014 to 2021
© 2020 Elsevier Inc. This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.
Financial News And Cds Spreads, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Deepa Bannigidadmath
Financial News And Cds Spreads, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Deepa Bannigidadmath
Research outputs 2014 to 2021
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. This paper examines whether financial news moves CDS spreads for a large number of U.S. stocks sorted into 19 panels consisting of sectors, sizes and credit quality. Using a unique financial news data set, we discover that while both positive and negative news predicts CDS spread changes in most of the panels, annualised mean–variance profits and utility gains are dominated by forecasting models that use positive news as a predictor. At best, risk factors only account for around 31% of observed profits.