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Computational Finance Models, Michael Gene Hilgers

Business and Information Technology Faculty Research & Creative Works

The author discusses his involvement in developing computational finance software. These computational finance models attempt to model the randomness of a stock's price. At a fixed future time, a stock's price is modeled as a random variable with a normal distribution centered about the current price adjusted with a simple growth multiplier. The standard deviation of this normal distribution depends on the length of time into the future one peers and the volatility of the market. As the market becomes more volatile and we look further ahead, the less likely the stock will have a price near the adjusted current …