Business Commons^™

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.

Urban Utopia Or Pipe Dream? Examining Chinese-Invested Smart City Development In Southeast Asia, Yujia He, Angela Tritto

Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce Faculty Publications

With increasing public–private partnership and international cooperation in smart city development across the Global South, Chinese firms are poised to take advantage of growing business opportunities, a situation that few studies have examined. This empirical case study of the Forest City, a Chinese-invested greenfield smart city project in Iskandar Malaysia, begins to fill that gap. This megaproject represents the coming together of overlapping economic development interests of the local authorities and the profit motivations of the Chinese investor. However, the project’s use of the ‘smart city’ discourse contrasts with the reality of limited technology adoption. Its visibility and considerable socio-economic …

Sino-Us Trade War, Erin Torgersen

Senior Honors Projects

China and the United States are unquestionably the two wealthiest economies in the world. These two countries alone account for almost half of the world’s wealth. As these nations battle to become the world's most powerful economy, it is no surprise high tensions have developed to complicate their relationship. China’s economy has been rapidly growing, especially in the last two decades as China is making its way towards the top of the list of strongest economies through its abundance of exports and manufacturing. Alternatively, as the U.S.’s economy has slowly decreased in the last few years, the gap between the …

Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.

Biden Administration U.S. Space Force Policy Literature, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Provides details on U.S. Space Force policy literature produced by the Biden Administration during its first eight months. Includes announcements that the Biden Administration will continue this new armed services branch begun during the Trump Administration. Features congressional testimony of Biden Administration officials such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Wilson and Air Force Space Command leader General James Dickinson, the text of Space Force's 2021 Digital Force Vision document, congressionally approved FY 2022 space force budget figures, congressional committee comments and report requirements contained in emerging defense spending legislation, the emergence of collaboration between Space Force and universities such as …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …

Public Health Insurance And Pharmaceutical Innovation: Evidence From China, Xuan Zhang, Huihua Nie

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developing countries are characterized by low levels of pharmaceutical innovation. A likely reason is their small market size, which is not because of the population size but because of low levels of income and lack of health insurance coverage. This study exploits a natural experiment from the implementation of a public health insurance program for rural residents in China (New Cooperative Medical Scheme [NCMS]) to examine whether the pharmaceutical industry increases innovation regarding diseases covered by the NCMS that are prevalent in rural areas. We examine the 1993–2009 patent data to gauge pharmaceutical innovation in China. Diseases with a 10% …

Brave New World - The Rise Of Cities Globally: Urbanizationmeets Technological Innovation And Digitization, Rhonda S. Binda

Open Educational Resources

The trifecta of globalization, urbanization and digitization have created new opportunities and challenges across our nation, cities, boroughs and urban centers. Cities are in a unique position at the center of commerce and technology becoming hubs for innovation and practical application of emerging technology. In this rapidly changing 24/7 digitized world, city governments worldwide are leveraging innovation and technology to become more effective, efficient, transparent and to be able to better plan for and anticipate the needs of its citizens, businesses and community organizations. This class will provide the framework for how cities and communities can become smarter and more …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …

Disruptive Innovation: The Rise Of The Knowledge-Sharing Market In China, Yaqing Lan

International Studies Honors Projects

Innovation is a major subject of international political economy, but mainstream discussions focus on scientific research and development and detach innovation development from their social contexts. In response to this view, this project reveals the importance of cultural and social factors in influencing innovation development by examining the rise of the knowledge-sharing market (KSM) -- a social-network-site-based economy in China. It suggests the KSM is a disruptive innovation not only because it is pioneered by a latecomer in the global innovation market, China, but also because its emergence from the changing Chinese consumer demands disrupts the mainstream thinking of innovation.

The Path Of Least Resistance: How Strict Chinese Stock Market Regulation Incentivizes Chinese Companies To List In Foreign Stock Exchanges, Chenyu Yin

Business and Economics Summer Fellows

Despite the recent trade dispute, decades of increased trade between the U.S. and China have given Chinese companies more opportunities to list on foreign stock markets, so they can find better financing opportunities in foreign markets. With the rapid development of the Chinese financial industry and the continuous spread of news on various company listings, why is it that many Chinese companies choose to list overseas, especially in the U.S. and Hong Kong, but not in China? In addition, what is the difference between the U.S. and Hong Kong exchanges, and how does that difference affect Chinese companies’ choice of …

International Energy Geopolitics, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Overview of international energy geopolitical trends. Emphasizes the importance of the Persian Gulf, South China Sea, East China Sea, Russia, and the Arctic to U.S. and international economic and strategic developments. Stresses the continuing importance of fossil fuels in domestic and international energy consumption, the variety of energy sources being used by various global regions, the potential for military conflict over access to natural resources, and how emerging energy leaders will determine global energy, environmental, and international security developments.

Relationship Between Industrial Structure Change And Economic Growth In Comparative Perspective Of China And Japan, Hongtian Ma

A with Honors Projects

Since China's reform and opening up, through the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China's economy developed rapidly in 2010, which became the second largest economy after the United States. After World War II, Japan's economy also developed rapidly through a series of economic restructuring. The basic situation of China and Japan is very different. China has a large population and rich land resources. Compared with China, Japan has a small population and a shortage of land resources. The GDP of the two countries is the second and third in the world respectively. This …

Geopolitics Of Rare Earth Elements, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Rare earth elements (REE) contain unique chemical physical properties such as lanthamum, are found in small concentrations, need extensive precise properties to separate, and are critical components of modern technologies such as laser guidance systems, personal electronics such as IPhones, satellites, and military weapons systems as varied as Virginia-class fast attack submarines, DDG-51 Aegis destroyers, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and precision guided munitions. The U.S. has some rare earth resources, but is heavily dependent on access to them from countries as varied as Afghanistan, Bolivia, and China. Losing access to these resources would have significant adverse economic, military, and …

Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores two political factors for their potential effects on urban land supply in China: corruption, and competition for promotion. We find that standard urban economic predictions hold in the sense that both population and income increases are strongly significant determinants for the increase in urban land supply. Conditional on these demand-side factors, we find that the usage of two-stage auctions (as a proxy for corruption) is highly correlated with the increase in land supply. The corruption effects are strongest for commercial land, followed by residential land and then industrial land. To shed light on the competition motives among …

Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In People's Republic Of China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores whether and how corruption and competition-for-promotion motives affect urban land supply in the People's Republic of China. Conditional on demand-side factors, we find that corruption is highly correlated with an increase in land supply. The corruption effects are strongest for commercial land, followed by residential land, and then industrial land. To shed light on the competition motives among prefectural leaders, we examine how the number of years in office affects land supply and distinguish among different hypotheses. Our empirical results show robust rising trends in land sales. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that among prefectural …

The Impact Of Marketization On Entrepreneurship In China: Recent Evidence, Yang Zhou, Joshua C. Hall

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

While marketization has been linked to provincial-level economic growth in China, how marketization leads to growth has not been explored. We hypothesize that marketization creates an environment that encourages entrepreneurship, which manifests itself in economic growth. While this argument is not new, it has not been explored in the Chinese context. We fill this gap by empirically testing the relationship between marketization and measures of entrepreneurship across Chinese provinces. Our primary measures of entrepreneurship are level changes in the number of “private enterprises” and “self-employed individuals”. We find that higher levels of marketization are positively related to higher levels of …

Social Health Insurance Coverage And Financial Protection Among Rural-To-Urban Internal Migrants In China: Evidence From A Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study, Wen Chen, Qi Zhang, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Fangjing Zhou, Hui Zhang, Li Ling

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

INTRODUCTION: Migrants are a vulnerable population and could experience various challenges and barriers to accessing health insurance. Health insurance coverage protects migrants from financial loss related to illness and death. We assessed social health insurance (SHI) coverage and its financial protection effect among rural-to-urban internal migrants (IMs) in China.

METHODS: Data from the '2014 National Internal Migrant Dynamic Monitoring Survey' were used. We categorised 170 904 rural-to-urban IMs according to their SHI status, namely uninsured by SHI, insured by the rural SHI scheme (new rural cooperative medical scheme (NCMS)) or the urban SHI schemes (urban employee-based basic medical insurance (UEBMI)/urban …

Assessment Of And Outlook On China's Corruption And Anticorruption Campaigns: Stagnation In The Authoritarian Trap, Shaomin Li

Management Faculty Publications

Since the beginning of China's economic reform in the late 1970s, corruption has been progressing alongside of economic growth. In 2012, when Xi Jinping took power, he waged the largest and longest anticorruption campaign known in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. This study provides an assessment on his campaign and projects an outlook on the future of corruption and anticorruption in China. The author argues that China will enter into an "authoritarian trap," in which the authoritarian power enables the state to effectively carry out the economic reform and achieve economic growth, while suppressing the demand for the …

The Impact Of Rural Pensions In China On Labor Migration, Karen Eggleson, Ang Sun, Zhaoguo Zhan

Faculty and Research Publications

We study the impact of China’s new rural pension program on promoting migration of labor by applying a regression discontinuity analysis to this new pension program. The results reveal a perceptible difference in labor migration among adult children whose parents are just above and below the age of pension eligibility: The adult children with a parent just attaining the pension-eligible age are more likely to be labor migrants compared with those with a parent just below the pension-eligible age. We also find that with a pension-eligible parent, the adult children are more likely to have off-farm jobs. These abrupt changes …

Shadow Banking And Regulation In China And Other Developing Countries, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

The rapid but largely unregulated growth in shadow banking in developing countries such as China can jeopardize financial stability. This article discusses that growth and argues that a regulatory balance is needed to help protect financial stability while preserving shadow banking as an important channel of alternative funding. The article also analyzes how that regulation could be designed.

On The Effectiveness Of Housing Purchase Restriction Policy In China: A Difference In Difference Approach, Jerry X. Cao, Bihong Huang, Rose Neng Lai

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Chinese government imposed the purchase restriction policy to rein in the housing bubble in 2010. Using a two-stage difference-in-difference approach and a comprehensive dataset covering the real estate markets across 70 cities, we find that the policy triggered substantial decline in the property price and transaction volume. Cities having higher reliance on real estate sector for fiscal revenue and economic growth experienced greater decline in housing prices following the policy implementation. However, the policy had no measurable effects on the nationwide construction boom, hinting the ineffectiveness of the policy to correct the housing bubble.

How Are Brand Names Of Chinese Companies Perceived By Americans?, Marc Fetscherin, Adamantios Diamantopoilos, Allan K.K. Chan, Rachael Abbott

Faculty Publications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper was to conduct an experimental design of Americans’ preferences for the English version of Chinese brand names by drawing from prior research in psychology, linguistics and marketing. The impact of string length and semantic relevance to English on meaningfulness, memorability and likeability of brand names from Chinese companies was assessed. Design/methodology/approach – A 2 × 2 experimental design was used, whereby brand names are categorized by string length (short vs long) and semantic relevance to English (with vs without). Respondents’ perception of the Chinese language in terms of pronounceability, language familiarity and language …

The Choice Of Technology And Equilibrium Wage Rigidity, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

In this general equilibrium model, firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Capital and labor are the two factors of production. The existence of efficiency wages leads to unemployment. The model is able to explain some interesting observations of the labor market. First, even though there is neither long-term labor contract nor costs of wage adjustment, wage rigidity is an equilibrium phenomenon: an increase in the exogenous job separation rate, the size of the population, the cost of exerting effort, and the probability that shirking is detected will not change the equilibrium wage rate. …

Reputation Building Through Failure, Huan Wang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In China, many entrepreneurs receive strong supports each time their business fails. This contradicts existing literature and differs from rare revival elsewhere. The major explanation lies in China’s unfriendly and unstable policy environments, due to which business failure per se cannot discern competence. Therefore, entrepreneurs failing because of policy shocks have the incentive for extra efforts to build reputation of competence and trustworthiness. This mechanism prepares a pool of seasoned entrepreneurs who can help alleviate damages of not only policy shocks, but also such system shocks as business cycle and sector upgrading, and therefore makes the economy more adaptable.

China-Based Industrial Espionage, Joel Savary

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

On Oct 8, 2014 China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)” (IMF). My paper explores one of the instances of unlawful business practices that have contributed to China’s new world position. China based espionage undercuts American businesses and U.S. foreign policy directly, causing catastrophic economic implications for America, its businesses, and its allies. The U.S. government is grappling with the means and methods China uses to disseminate information stolen from U.S. businesses to support China based industries. Due to the lack of transparency in China, it has been difficult …