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Full-Text Articles in Business
Nonstationarity, Cointegration And Structural Breaks In The Australian Term Structure Of Interest Rates, Sandy Suardi
Nonstationarity, Cointegration And Structural Breaks In The Australian Term Structure Of Interest Rates, Sandy Suardi
Sandy Suardi
This article examines the unit-root property of the Australian short- and long-term interest rates using unit-root tests that accommodate a single or two breaks under the null and/or alternative hypothesis. Two breaks in interest rates are found to coincide with the 1982/83 and 1990/91 recessions or the 1993 inflation targeting period. We further investigate the implications of these structural breaks on the cointegrating relationship implied by the single, linear expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. While there is evidence that the data are consistent with the expectations hypothesis at the shorter end of the term structure, breaks …
A Monetary Union In East Asia: What Does The Common Cycles Approach Tell?, K Sato, David E. Allen, Zhaoyong Zhang
A Monetary Union In East Asia: What Does The Common Cycles Approach Tell?, K Sato, David E. Allen, Zhaoyong Zhang
Zhaoyong Zhang
There is controversy about whether a monetary union is feasible in the East Asian region. Amongst the criteria for establishing a monetary union, most of the existing studies focus on the symmetric issue of fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes the firstdifferenced variables in the model and examines only bilateral relationships. When forming a monetary union, the member countries need to renounce their monetary policy autonomy. If shocks to respective economies are symmetric, the cost of relinquishing the discretionary monetary policy is likely to be …
Dynamic Co-Movements And Diversification Benefits Among The Greater China Region, The Uk And The Us Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Christos Savva
Dynamic Co-Movements And Diversification Benefits Among The Greater China Region, The Uk And The Us Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Christos Savva
Francesco Guidi
No abstract provided.
An Application Of The New Cointegration Techniques In Export-Gdp Nexus In Iran, Mosayeb Pahlavani, Edgar J. Wilson
An Application Of The New Cointegration Techniques In Export-Gdp Nexus In Iran, Mosayeb Pahlavani, Edgar J. Wilson
Edgar Wilson
This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Iran using annual time series data spanning form 1960 to 2003.
Modelling The Glitter In Gold, Kuldeep Kumar, Gulasekaran Rajaguru, Samir Shrivastava
Modelling The Glitter In Gold, Kuldeep Kumar, Gulasekaran Rajaguru, Samir Shrivastava
Kuldeep Kumar
Academics have found it particularly challenging to develop parsimonious models that can accurately model and forecast gold price. One of the reasons could be the complex nature of gold market fundamentals. Arguing that the key to forecasting gold prices lies in analyzing the factors that generate investment demand (as opposed to gold supply and fabrication demand), we empirically validate a model that factors in consumer sentiments, interest rates, returns on stock market, and oil prices. Our findings indicate that although gold price has significant correlation with all these four variables, interest rate and consumer sentiments are only significant predictors of …
Modelling The Glitter In Gold, Kuldeep Kumar, Gulasekaran Rajaguru, Samir Shrivastava
Modelling The Glitter In Gold, Kuldeep Kumar, Gulasekaran Rajaguru, Samir Shrivastava
Gulasekaran Rajaguru
Academics have found it particularly challenging to develop parsimonious models that can accurately model and forecast gold price. One of the reasons could be the complex nature of gold market fundamentals. Arguing that the key to forecasting gold prices lies in analyzing the factors that generate investment demand (as opposed to gold supply and fabrication demand), we empirically validate a model that factors in consumer sentiments, interest rates, returns on stock market, and oil prices. Our findings indicate that although gold price has significant correlation with all these four variables, interest rate and consumer sentiments are only significant predictors of …
Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis Using Vars And Variance Decomposition, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Evan Lau, Ahmed M. Khalid
Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis Using Vars And Variance Decomposition, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Evan Lau, Ahmed M. Khalid
Ahmed Khalid
This paper examines the twin deficits hypothesis in the ASEAN countries. The major findings of this paper are the following. (1) Long run relationships are detected between budget and current account deficits. (2) The Keynesian view fits well for Thailand since the causality runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. For Indonesia, the causality runs in an opposite direction while the empirical results indicate that a bidirectional pattern of causality exists for Malaysia and the Philippines. (3) We also found support for an indirect causal relationship that runs from budget deficit to higher interest rates, and higher interest rates …
The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
Lonnie K. Stevans
It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in GDP on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time and the 1980s economic expansion in the U.S. had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include …