Business Commons^™

The Roles That Forecast Surprise And Forecast Error Play In Determining Management Forecast Precision, Jong-Hag Choi, Linda A. Myers, Yoonseok Zang, David A. Ziebart

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Studying the determinants of management forecast precision is important because a better understanding of the factors affecting management’s choice of forecast precision can provide investors and other users with cues about the characteristics of the information contained in the forecasts. In addition, as regulators assess the regulation of voluntary management disclosures, they need to better understand how managers choose among forecast precision disclosure alternatives. Using 16,872 management earnings forecasts collected from 1995 through 2004, we provide strong evidence that forecast precision is negatively associated with the magnitude of the forecast surprise and that this negative association is stronger when the …