Business Commons^™

Managerial Incentives And Management Forecast Precision, Qiang Cheng, Ting Luo, Heng Yue

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Managers have great discretion in determining forecast characteristics, butlittle is known about how managerial incentives affect these characteristics. This paperexamines whether managers strategically choose forecast precision for self-servingpurposes. Building on the prior finding that the market reaction to vague forecasts isweaker than its reaction to precise forecasts, we find that for management forecastsdisclosed before insider sales, more positive (negative) news forecasts are more (less)precise than other management forecasts. The opposite applies to managementforecasts disclosed before insider purchases. These results are consistent withmanagers strategically choosing forecast precision to increase stock prices beforeinsider sales and to decrease stock prices before insider purchases. …