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Full-Text Articles in Business
Managing Wind-Based Electricity Generation In The Presence Of Storage And Transmission Capacity, Yangfang (Helen) Zhou, Alan Scheller-Wolf, Nicola Secomandi, Stephen Smith
Managing Wind-Based Electricity Generation In The Presence Of Storage And Transmission Capacity, Yangfang (Helen) Zhou, Alan Scheller-Wolf, Nicola Secomandi, Stephen Smith
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the management of a merchant wind energy farm co‐located with a grid‐level storage facility and connected to a market through a transmission line. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) with stochastic wind speed and electricity prices. Consistent with most deregulated electricity markets, our model allows these prices to be negative. As this feature makes it difficult to characterize any optimal policy of our MDP, we show the optimality of a stage‐ and partial‐state‐dependent‐threshold policy when prices can only be positive. We extend this structure when prices can also be negative to develop heuristic one …
Duopolistic Competition Under Risk Aversion And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Duopolistic Competition Under Risk Aversion And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A monopolist typically defers entry into an industry as both price uncertainty and the level of risk aversion increase. By contrast, the presence of a rival typically hastens entry under risk neutrality. Here, we examine these two opposing effects in a duopoly setting. We demonstrate that the value of a firm and its entry decision behave differently with risk aversion and uncertainty depending on the type of competition. Interestingly, if the leader’s role is defined endogenously, then higher uncertainty makes her relatively better off, whereas with the roles exogenously defined, the impact of uncertainty is ambiguous.
A Theory Of Strategic Mergers, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres, Alexei Zhdanov
A Theory Of Strategic Mergers, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres, Alexei Zhdanov
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine firms’ strategic incentives to engage in horizontal mergers. In a real options framework, we show that strategic considerations may explain abnormally high takeover activity during periods of positive and negative demand shocks. Importantly, this pattern emerges solely as a result of firms’ strategic interaction in output markets. We show that the U-shaped relation between the state of demand and the propensity of firms to merge, documented in past studies, is driven by horizontal mergers in industries that are: (1) relatively more concentrated, (2) characterized by relatively strong competitive interaction among firms, and (3) characterized by relatively low merger-related …
Optimal Investment Under Operational Flexibility, Risk Aversion, And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Optimal Investment Under Operational Flexibility, Risk Aversion, And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less …
What Makes And What Does Not Make A Real Option? A Study Of International Joint Ventures, Ilya Cuypers, Xavier Martin
What Makes And What Does Not Make A Real Option? A Study Of International Joint Ventures, Ilya Cuypers, Xavier Martin
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by real options theory on a foreign investor's choice of how large an equity share to take in a JV. We theorize that macroeconomic and institutional variables generate exogenous uncertainty whereas, by contrast, cultural distance and choices pertaining to corporate scope and product or process development activities involve endogenous sources of uncertainty that investors can both assess …
On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck
On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In the paper “Investment Decisions in the Theory of Finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies”, Magni [Eur. J. Operat. Res. 137 (2002) 206] shows that using the net present value rule for making investment decisions can lead to inconsistencies and antinomies. The author claims that the so-called equivalent-risk tenet of finance, whereby an investor needs to compare an investment opportunity with an asset of equivalent risk, is impossible to implement. In this paper, we show that the main thesis of this paper is incorrect, and that finance theory, when applied correctly, can be used to value investment projects by comparing assets …