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Index-Exciting Caviar: A New Empirical Time-Varying Risk Model, Dashan Huang, Baimin Yu, Zudi Lu, Sergio Focardi, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima
Index-Exciting Caviar: A New Empirical Time-Varying Risk Model, Dashan Huang, Baimin Yu, Zudi Lu, Sergio Focardi, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Instead of assuming the distribution of return series, Engle and Manganelli (2004) propose a new Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approach, Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CAViaR), to directly compute the quantile of an individual asset's returns which performs better in many cases than those that invert a return distribution. In this paper we explore more flexible CAViaR models that allow VaR prediction to depend upon a richer information set involving returns on an index. Specifically, we formulate a time-varying CAViaR model whose parameters vary according to the evolution of the index. The empirical evidence reported in this paper suggests that our time-varying CAViaR …
An Investigation Of Value Updating Bidders In Simultaneous Online Art Auctions, Mayukh Dass, Lynne Seymour, Srinivas K. Reddy
An Investigation Of Value Updating Bidders In Simultaneous Online Art Auctions, Mayukh Dass, Lynne Seymour, Srinivas K. Reddy
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Simultaneous online auctions, in which the auction of all items being sold starts at the same time and ends at the same time, are becoming popular especially in selling items such as collectables and art pieces. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of bidders (Reactors) in simultaneous auctions who update their pre-auction value of an item in the presence of influencing bidders (Influencers). We represent an auction as a network of bidders where the nodes represent the bidders participating in the auction and the ties between them represent an Influencer?Reactor relationship. We further develop a random effects bilinear model …