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Full-Text Articles in Business
An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu
An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We develop a simple and tractable model of opinions and price-volume dynamics based on a word-of-mouth communication process widely used in epidemiology. Risk-averse investors have different opinions depending on whether they heard the news from a friend. Opinions initially diverge and then converge over time as news spreads, which leads to price adjustment and trading volume. News released to many leads to an expected difusion rate (the change in the fraction of investors with the news) that declines with time. But news initially released to few leads to an expected diffusion rate that initially increases in time and only then …
Growing The Asset Management Franchise: Evidence From Hedge Fund Firms, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Growing The Asset Management Franchise: Evidence From Hedge Fund Firms, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. While first funds outperform follow-on funds, the superior performance of the former attenuates following the launch of the second fund. Multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms, but harvest greater fee revenues. Consequently, the multiple-product firm has become the dominant business model in the hedge fund industry.
Forecasting Government Bond Risk Premia Using Technical Indicators, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Forecasting Government Bond Risk Premia Using Technical Indicators, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to technical indicators which are widely used by practitioners. In this paper, we study the predictive ability of a variety of technical indicators vis-a-vis the economic variables. We find that technical indicators have significant in both in- and out-of-sample forecasting power. Moreover, we find that using information from both technical indicators and economic variables increases the forecasting performance substantially. We also find that the economic value of bond risk premia forecasts from our methodology is comparable to that of equity risk premium forecasts.