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Duopolistic Competition Under Risk Aversion And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Duopolistic Competition Under Risk Aversion And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A monopolist typically defers entry into an industry as both price uncertainty and the level of risk aversion increase. By contrast, the presence of a rival typically hastens entry under risk neutrality. Here, we examine these two opposing effects in a duopoly setting. We demonstrate that the value of a firm and its entry decision behave differently with risk aversion and uncertainty depending on the type of competition. Interestingly, if the leader’s role is defined endogenously, then higher uncertainty makes her relatively better off, whereas with the roles exogenously defined, the impact of uncertainty is ambiguous.
Project Options Valuation With Net Present Value And Decision Tree Analysis, Bert De Reyck, Zeger Degraeve, Roger Vandenborre
Project Options Valuation With Net Present Value And Decision Tree Analysis, Bert De Reyck, Zeger Degraeve, Roger Vandenborre
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Real options analysis (ROA) has been developed to correctly value projects with inherent flexibility, including the possibility to abandon, defer, expand, contract or switch to a different project. ROA allows computing the correct discount rate using the replicating portfolio technique or risk-neutral probability method. We propose an alternative approach for valuing Real Options based on the certainty-equivalent version of the net present value formula, which eliminates the need to identify market-priced twin securities. In addition, our approach can be extended to the case of multinomial trees, a useful tool for modeling uncertainty in projects. We introduce within decision tree analysis …