Business Commons^™

Remediating System Neglect In Judgmental Demand Forecasting, Srikant Vinakota

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Prior research has shown that individuals tasked with judgmental forecasting of demand based on time-series data overreact in stable environments and underreact in unstable environments. Kremer et al. (2011) attributed this to the system neglect hypothesis, which claims that forecasters emphasize forecast errors over the system parameters.

The present research investigates interventions that mitigate system neglect and address the causal factors for overreaction and underreaction. Given the desire by organizations to move towards touchless planning and automated decision-making, minimizing human judgment and understanding its drivers is of significant practical importance.

We tested four different interventions on an online subject pool …