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Full-Text Articles in Business
Brent Crude Oil Prices Volatility During Major Crises, Miroslava Zavadska, Lucia Morales, Joseph Coughlan
Brent Crude Oil Prices Volatility During Major Crises, Miroslava Zavadska, Lucia Morales, Joseph Coughlan
Articles
Volatility patterns in Brent crude oil spot and futures prices are examined during four major crises that significantly affected the oil markets: the First Gulf war 1990/91; the Asian Financial crisis 1997/98; the US terrorist attack 2001; and the Global Financial crisis 2008/9. The selected crises arose due to different triggers having diverse implications for oil market participants. The outcomes reveal higher levels of volatility during crises that was directly associated with oil supply/demand disruptions and higher volatility persistence during financial/economic crises, indicating that volatility persistence is a key issue when uncertainty is derived from global economic and financial instability.
Risk Management And Hedging Approaches In Energy Markets, Jim Hanly
Risk Management And Hedging Approaches In Energy Markets, Jim Hanly
Articles
Energy based assets are showing increased susceptibility to volatility arising out of geo-political, economic, climate and technological events. Given the economic importance of energy products, their market participants need to be able to access efficient strategies to effectively manage their exposures and reduce price risk. This chapter will outline the key futures based hedging approaches that have been developed for managing energy price risk and evaluate their effectiveness. A key element of this analysis will be the breadth of assets considered. These include Crude and Refined Oil products, Natural Gas, and wholesale Electricity markets. We find significant differences in the …
Managing Energy Price Risk Using Futures Contracts: A Comparative Analysis, Jim Hanly
Managing Energy Price Risk Using Futures Contracts: A Comparative Analysis, Jim Hanly
Articles
This paper carries out a comparative analysis of managing energy risk through futures hedging, for energy market participants across a broad dataset that encompasses the largest and most actively traded energy products. Uniquely, we carry out a hedge comparison using a variety of risk measures including Variance, Value at risk (VaR), and Expected Shortfall as well as a utility based performance metric for two different investor horizons; weekly and monthly. We find that hedging is effective across the spectrum of risk measures we employ. We also find significant differences in both the hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of different …
Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales
Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales
Articles
This paper estimates and applies a risk management strategy for electricity spot exposures using futures hedging. We apply our approach to three of the most actively traded European electricity markets, Nordpool, APXUK and Phelix. We compare both optimal hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of these markets for two hedging horizons, weekly and monthly using both Variance and Value at Risk (VaR). We find significant differences in both the Optimal Hedge Ratios (OHR’s) and the hedging effectiveness of the different electricity markets. Better performance is found for the Nordpool market while the poorest performer in hedging terms is Phelix. However …
Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
Hedgers as investors are concerned with both risk and return. However when measuring hedging performance, the role of returns and investor risk aversion has generally been neglected in the literature, by its focus on minimum variance hedging. In this paper we address this by using utility based performance metrics to evaluate the hedging effectiveness of utility based hedges for hedgers with both moderate and high risk aversion together with the more traditional minimum variance approach. To examine this for an energy hedger, we apply our approach to WTI Crude Oil, for three different hedging horizons, daily, weekly and monthly. We …
Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of …