Business Commons^™

Is The Declining Birthrate Really An Issue For The Economy?, Harsh Ramesh Pednekar, Theodore Lee, Darrion Chin

Introduction to Research Methods RSCH 202

This study aims to explore the complex implications of declining birth rates on the economy, focusing on GDP per capita as a crucial metric, and aims to uncover both potential opportunities and challenges stemming from this demographic transformation using regression analysis. Using a quantitative methodology and secondary data from OECD.stat, World Population Review, and World Bank, the study explores the relationship between declining birth rates and economic impacts. GDP per capita serves as an essential dependent variable, and it accounts for control variables such as labour force participation, literacy, and education levels, child dependence ratio, and physical capital. Past studies …

Analysis Of Us Airline Stocks Performance Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (Lda), Amina Issoufou Anaroua

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Various events, such as changes in the interest rate or the hijacking of a commercial aircraft, can lead to significant shifts in airline stock performance. This study aimed to measure the impact of aviation-related news announcements on the stock performance of US airlines, focusing on different topics. The dataset included aviation news covering airlines, airports, regulations, safety, accidents, manufacturers, MRO, incidents, aviation training, general aviation, and others obtained from Aviation Voice. To uncover patterns that could explain the movements of US airline stocks, a natural language processing technique called Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was employed. The process involved text mining …

Six-Degree-Of-Freedom Optimal Feedback Control Of Pinpoint Landing Using Deep Neural Networks, Omkar S. Mulekar, Hancheol Cho, Riccardo Bevilacqua

Student Works

Machine learning regression techniques have shown success at feedback control to perform near-optimal pinpoint landings for low fidelity formulations (e.g. 3 degree-of-freedom). Trajectories from these low-fidelity landing formulations have been used in imitation learning techniques to train deep neural network policies to replicate these optimal landings in closed loop. This study details the development of a near-optimal, neural network feedback controller for a 6 degree-of-freedom pinpoint landing system. To model disturbances, the problem is cast as either a multi-phase optimal control problem or a triple single-phase optimal control problem to generate examples of optimal control through the presence of disturbances. …

Stability Of Deep Neural Networks For Feedback-Optimal Pinpoint Landings, Omkar S. Mulekar, Hancheol Cho, Riccardo Bevilacqua

Student Works

The ability to certify systems driven by neural networks is crucial for future rollouts of machine learning technologies in aerospace applications. In this study, the neural networks are used to represent a fuel-optimal feedback controller for two different 3-degree-of-freedom pinpoint landing problems. It is shown that the standard sum-ofsquares Lyapunov candidate is too restrictive to assess the stability of systems with fuel-optimal control profiles. Instead, a parametric Lyapunov candidate (i.e. a neural network) can be trained to sufficiently evaluate the closed-loop stability of fuel-optimal control profiles. Then, a stability-constrained imitation learning method is applied, which simultaneously trains a neural network …

Towards Agile Academia: An Approach To Scientific Paper Writing Inspired By Software Engineering, Tyler Procko

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The construction of scientific papers is performed in service of the greater scientific community. This iterative process is, in effect, an academic economy, where all members benefit from well-written papers. However, many published scientific papers are poorly written; they often lack sufficient detail to allow replication, there is improper usage of citations or a lack of regard to relevant work, reporting is vague or without linked empirical data to allow verification, figures do not correspond to text or are non-sensical, literary elements, e.g., bulleted lists, are used ineffectively, formatting renders certain sections unreadable, and grammatical errors abound. The issues of …

Predicting Dynamic Fragmentation Characteristics From High-Impact Energy Events Utilizing Terrestrial Static Arena Test Data And Machine Learning, Katharine Larsen, Riccardo Bevilacqua, Omkar S. Mulekar, Elisabetta L. Jerome, Thomas J. Hatch-Aguilar

Student Works

To continue space operations with the increasing space debris, accurate characterization of fragment fly-out properties from hypervelocity impacts is essential. However, with limited realistic experimentation and the need for data, available static arena test data, collected utilizing a novel stereoscopic imaging technique, is the primary dataset for this paper. This research leverages machine learning methodologies to predict fragmentation characteristics using combined data from this imaging technique and simulations, produced considering dynamic impact conditions. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), fit via expectation maximization (EM), are used to model fragment track intersections on a defined surface of intersection. After modeling the fragment distributions, …

Career Choice Motivation For Commercial Pilots, Brett Watts

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Career choice motivation research studies the factors involved during a person’s decision-making process regarding which career to pursue (Skatova & Ferguson, 2014). These factors are often studied in individuals who have not yet entered the workforce, such as students. Although there is a significant amount of research on career choice motivations for doctors, dentists, and other related fields, research on career choice motivations for pilots is sparse. As air traffic is expected to grow at approximately 4.7% per year for the next 20 years (Federal Aviation Administration, 2022), a key factor in the aviation industry’s growth is the availability of …

Overview Of Low-Cost Carriers In Russia And Post-Soviet States, Tamilla Curtis, Dawna L. Rhoades

Publications

The low-cost carrier's model made remarkable gains across the globe in the prior decade, although growth was uneven domestically and intraregionally. Within this region, there are significant differences in overall country size, the size of the domestic aviation market, and the number of carriers serving the market. The largest and most developed market is in Russia, but rest of the region also experienced growth in economy airlines' activity as they discovered the power of the model to expand aviation access and lower costs. The success of low-cost carriers, however, has been halting and hampered by government decisions on foreign investment, …

Evidence-Based Managerial Decision-Making With Machine Learning: The Case Of Bayesian Inference In Aviation Incidents, Aaron Glassman, Burak Cankaya, Kazim Topuz, Dursun Delen

Publications

Understanding the factors behind aviation incidents is essential, not only because of the lethality of the accidents but also the incidents’ direct and indirect economic impact. Even minor incidents trigger significant economic damage and create disruptions to aviation operations. It is crucial to investigate these incidents to understand the underlying reasons and hence, reduce the risk associated with physical and financial safety in a precarious industry like aviation. The findings may provide decision-makers with a causally accurate means of investigating the topic while untangling the difficulties concerning the statistical associations and causal effects. This research aims to identify the significant …

High-Risk Wildlife Strike Regions: An In-Depth Visual Representation Of Wildlife Strikes At And Around Part 139 Airports In Florida., Luke P. Ochs, Flavio A. C. Mendonca Ph.D.

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Wildlife strikes with aircraft have been and continue to be a problem in the aviation industry costing millions of dollars in both damage and delays. This study used the geoprocessing information system ArcGIS to depict wildlife strikes at Florida’s 26 Part 139 Airports from 2012 to 2021. Importing reports from the National Wildlife Strike Database into ArcGIS, this study used symbology and geoprocessing tools to create a color/ size gradient that depicts the risk (number of damaging strikes out of known strikes) at each airport. Using an interactive map with ArcGIS Online viewers can observe then select each airports vector …

Connecting Organizational Learning Strategies To Organizational Resilience, Gordon R. Haley

Publications

Purpose: The objective of this study is to analyze the conceptual and domain overlap of organizational learning and organizational resilience; specifically, the adaptation or renewal domain in organizational resilience. From the findings, strategies to foster collective learning leading to organizational resilience are identified and outlined.

Employability Of The Graduates From 14 Cfr Part 147 Schools: Understanding The Critical Factors Using Covariance-Based Sem, Christine T. Kelley

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Certified aviation mechanics are crucial to maintaining a healthy aviation industry in the United States. To fulfill this need, 14 CFR Part 147 aviation mechanic schools educate students under the supervision of the FAA. Though the demand for mechanics is projected to increase over the next 20 years, the supply is not expected to meet this demand. Therefore, the research discussed in this paper addressed this potential deficiency by asking two research questions. The first related to the factors students feel affect their employability, and the second was used to analyze whether the students learned these skills at school or …

Technology Within Cultures: Segmenting The Wired Consumers In Canada, France, And The Usa, Maria Petrescu, Aidin Namin, Marie-Odile Richard

Publications

This paper uses a state-of-the-art quantitative modeling approach to latent class analysis to analyze American, Canadian, and French consumers’ perception of technology-based products and their cultural values. It identifies hidden segments of consumers based on technology adoption propensity, cosmopolitan characteristics, and identification with the global consumer culture. The study emphasizes the diversity and variability between and among countries regarding localism, globalism, cosmopolitanism, and the global consumer culture. The framework provides a new way to evaluate modern consumers and reflects the combination of national/regional cultural characteristics and global culture elements while highlighting the relevance of modern technologies and communication methods in …

An Investigation Into The Economic Useful Life Of Commercial Aircraft As Impacted By Maintenance And Economic Variables, Robert Gallagher

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This research involved examining the economic useful life of commercial aircraft and the impact of maintenance and economic variables on the viability and longevity of the asset. The data sample consisted of the entire population of Boeing commercial aircraft produced between 1956 and 2021. The objective was to determine the effect of both maintenance and economic variables on the longevity and usefulness of commercial aircraft. As manufacturers work with issues such as service life, economic life, safety, and critical design features, those in the aviation community focus on the operational side of the equation––how long can one operate the asset, …

A Simulation Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Civil Aircraft Takeoff Performance, Thomas D. Pellegrin

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Climate change affects the near-surface environmental conditions that prevail at airports worldwide. Among these, air density and headwind speed are major determinants of takeoff performance, and their sensitivity to global warming carries potential operational and economic implications for the commercial air transport industry. Previous archival and prospective research observed a weakening in headwind strength and predicted an increase in near-surface temperatures, respectively, resulting in an increase in takeoff distances and weight restrictions. The main purpose of the present study was to update and generalize the extant prospective research using a more representative sample of worldwide airports, a wider range of …

Change Fatigue In Aviation Maintenance Through A Human Factors Lens, Stephanie Douglas, Bettina Mrusek

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Aviation is a demanding and fast-paced industry and it is not uncommon for aviation professionals, including maintainers, to experience rapid disruption and organizational change. Fatigue in aviation professionals is a known risk. Fatigue risk management systems (FRMS) seek to mitigate this risk by focusing on tiredness resulting from long work hours and lack of quality sleep. Recently, change fatigue has also risen to the forefront of business and employee studies. In many of today’s industries, change is constant as firms implement changes either to address disruptions, business growth or to follow trends in the industry. Frequent changes in an organization …

Development Of Critical Thinking Skills In Collegiate Aviation Programs, Irene Miller, Tom Long

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Critical thinking requires an individual to gather and interpret data, develop conclusions based upon relevant findings, and implement the best solution. The dynamic aviation industry requires these skills of its pilots, maintainers, and managers for companies to remain successful. Collegiate aviation programs need to teach critical thinking and cognitive skills to allow students entering the workforce to become these successful aviation managers, maintainers, and pilots. Since August 2021, Southern Illinois University has been conducting a study to inform the development of these techniques for promoting critical thinking skills in the classroom and determine their efficacy. SIU will provide the preliminary …

Development Of A Safety Performance Decision-Making Tool For Flight Training Organizations, Marisa D. Aguiar Phd, Carolina L. Anderson Phd

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

The purpose of the research was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, decision-making tool, specific to large, collegiate Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 141 flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the study conducted simulation runs based on true operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions possible within large, collegiate CFR Part 141 flight training organizations with varying levels of controllable resources in terms of personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active …

The Diversification Of The Us Airline Pilot Career Field: Perceptions Of Collegiate Flight Students., Irene Miller, Timm Bliss

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

There will be a tremendous need for commercial pilots over the next ten years. To maintain a pipeline of pilots, a US airline announced a diversity initiative in March 2021 to operate their own flight school with the goal of hiring thousands of pilots, at least 50% of them women or people of color. In December 2021, 80% of the airline’s inaugural class of 30 flight students were women or people of color. In 2022, several other airlines launched similar initiatives. The purpose of this study was to identify perceptions of collegiate flight students regarding these airlines’ new training and …

Neutralization Of Fuel Tankering Emissions For Environmental Sustainability, Peter O'Reilly, Maria Petrescu, Fabricio Sulzbacher, Diogo Coutinho

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

As aviation has been one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions, this paper explores sustainable solutions in the equation of the economic savings from the fuel tankering practice, in a way it could represent gains of credibility for this industry (Boussauw & Vanoutrive, 2019). The fuel expenses in Brazil have been responsible for the highest operational cost for the airlines and, as a result, there has been an ongoing pursuit of the highest level of efficiency (ANAC, 2019). In this context, this study has been focused on the emerging Brazilian aviation market, and uses primary data collected from three major …

Training And The Pilot Shortage, Geoff Murray

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

For the past few years, securing a pipeline of new pilots has been a primary concern for airlines around the world. In an Oliver Wyman poll of flight operations leaders, 62 percent listed a shortage of qualified pilots as a key risk. The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region: In the United States, it’s an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training. In China and other regions where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle is to expand capacity fast enough.

The …

Business Inferences And Risk Modeling With Machine Learning; The Case Of Aviation Incidents, Burak Cankaya, Kazim Topuz, Aaron M. Glassman

Publications

Machine learning becomes truly valuable only when decision-makers begin to depend on it to optimize decisions. Instilling trust in machine learning is critical for businesses in their efforts to interpret and get insights into data, and to make their analytical choices accessible and subject to accountability. In the field of aviation, the innovative application of machine learning and analytics can facilitate an understanding of the risk of accidents and other incidents. These occur infrequently, generally in an irregular, unpredictable manner, and cause significant disruptions, and hence, they are classified as "high-impact, low-probability" (HILP) events. Aviation incident reports are inspected by …

Man Vs Machine – Detecting Deception In Online Reviews, Maria Petrescu

Publications

This study focused on three main research objectives: analyzing the methods used to identify deceptive online consumer reviews, evaluating insights provided by multi-method automated approaches based on individual and aggregated review data, and formulating a review interpretation framework for identifying deception. The theoretical framework is based on two critical deception-related models, information manipulation theory and self-presentation theory. The findings confirm the interchangeable characteristics of the various automated text analysis methods in drawing insights about review characteristics and underline their significant complementary aspects. An integrative multi-method model that approaches the data at the individual and aggregate level provides more complex insights …

Integrated Dynamic Airline Route And Schedule Optimization, Bayan Begaliyeva

Student Works

By harnessing real-time and historical data in conjunction with advanced AI technologies, this project revolutionizes route and schedule planning, leading to enhanced efficiency, cost reduction, and an improved passenger experience.

Aviation Fuel Tankering And Sustainability: The Brazilian Scenario, Peter O'Reilly, Fabricio Sulzbacher, Diogo Jardim Coutinho, Maria Petrescu

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research project aims to investigate fuel tankering practices in the aviation industry, exploring their relation to carbon emissions and evaluating the Brazilian fuel tankering scenario in comparison to global and national policies and regulations. The study recommends sustainable national measures and compares global practices for minimizing the higher emissions due to fuel tankering. The results of the study show that the Brazilian aviation industry can sustainably neutralize the carbon emissions from the fuel tankering practice. The study recommends that airlines allocate part of the savings generated to purchasing carbon credits to offset the carbon emitted. Future research should focus …

Ads-B Communication Interference In Air Traffic Management, George Ray

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) provides position and state information about aircraft and is becoming an essential component in the global air traffic management system. ADS-B transponders broadcast this key information on a common frequency to both other aircraft and to secondary surveillance radar systems located at ground stations. Both the aircraft transponders and the ground stations work together to assist in managing the commercial airspace. Since the aircraft transponders all broadcast on the same frequency and are in close proximity there is an apparent risk of interference and the garbling of the communications needed to manage the airspace.

The …

Single Pilot Operations And Public Acceptance: A Mixed Methods Study Conducted In Greece, Panagiotis Kioulepoglou, Ilias Makris

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The airline industry is moving towards Single Pilot Operations (SPO), as a result of the increased training and salary cost of pilots, and also as a remedy to the impending pilot shortage which is estimated to manifest itself in the years to follow. The main objective of this study was to explore whether the Greek public is willing to accept only one pilot onboard, what are the factors that affect this decision, and which is the preferred method of replacing the second pilot by choosing between an array of alternative options proposed by the industry.

Based on the qualitative findings …

Validation Of An Operationalized Model Of Iso-Ahola’S Theory Of Tourism Motivation: A Case In Point-To-Point Suborbital Space Travel, Brian T. Musselman Ph.D., Scott R. Winter Ph.D.

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The purpose of the study was to validate Snepenger, King, Marshall, and Uysal’s (2006) model of Iso-Ahola’s (1982) theory of tourism motivation for use in point-to-point suborbital space tourism research. No previous research was discovered, which assessed point-to-point suborbital space flight within the theoretical foundation of the theory of tourism motivation. Snepenger et al.’s (2006) model was assessed as published, and exploratory factor analysis (EFA) failed to produce data fitting the four dimensions. The researchers modified the item descriptions based on research. Using a second sample, the modified model was assessed. EFA produced four factors with adequate convergent and discriminant …

The Influence Of Marketing Communication Approaches On Student Pilots’ Choices Of Flight Schools, Jingmin Jin Ph.D.

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

As the U.S. domestic commercial aviation activities have been recovering and will continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic over the next few years, a trend of the shortage in the regional airline pilot workforce is noted. Therefore, it is crucial to increase the reservoir of pilot candidates to sustain the industry’s pilot occupation rigor. To assist advance flight schools’ recruitment of new pilot candidates, this study examined how various marketing communication approaches influenced student pilots’ selections of flight schools. This study also further investigated how student pilots’ preferences in accessing school information differed in accordance with their different demographic …

Experience Levels Forcing A Change In Aviation Planning, Jason A. Powell Mas, Atp, Cfmei, Elizabeth Crockett Ms, Aas, A&P,

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

This theoretical article evaluates the changing dynamics caused by high turnover in aviation and how the lower level of experience impacts aeronautical companies' organizational planning and partnerships. The aviation organization must adapt managerial practices and alter training capability and procedures to ensure appropriate skill levels. Without proper planning, the company will have an imbalance of skills and accept more risk to operations. The aviation organization may be unable to adapt current scheduling practices to properly prepare the aircrew for challenging situations or sufficiently train maintenance personnel. The result is a need to leverage strategic partnerships, alter management practices toward personnel …