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Modelling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry Of Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate, Mutiu A. Oyinlola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modelled the volatility persistence and asymmetry of naira-dollar exchange rate in interbank and Bureau de Change (BDC) using monthly data between January 2004 and November 2017. The study employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH (1,1)], Threshold GARCH [TGARCH (1,1)] and Exponential GARCH [EGARCH (1,1)]. The results of Bai-Perron (2003) structural break identified two significant breaks in each market. Interestingly, the breaks, particularly for the interbank exchange rate(December, 2014 and January, 2015), seem to have coincided with the period of depreciation in the country’s exchange rate which could be linked to the precipitous movement in the international crude oil …