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Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 – 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and …
Macroeconomic Implications Of Trade Diversification In Nigeria, Lukman O. Oyelami, Philip O. Alege
Macroeconomic Implications Of Trade Diversification In Nigeria, Lukman O. Oyelami, Philip O. Alege
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study seeks to examine the effects of trade diversification on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. To achieve this, the study employs bound test of ARDL to determine the existence of cointegration between trade diversification and key macroeconomic variables. We further estimate the short-run and long-run effects of Intensive and Extensive trade diversification on Economic growth and exchange rate movements. The results from bound tests confirm co-integration between trade diversification and economic growth on one hand and trade diversification and exchange rate movements on the other hand. Similarly, the results from our estimations show that trade diversification can propel economic growth …