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Air Force Institute of Technology

Theses and Dissertations

2020

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Agility Measurement For Large Organizations, Jeremy R. Geiger Sep 2020

Agility Measurement For Large Organizations, Jeremy R. Geiger

Theses and Dissertations

There is an ongoing demand for organizations to become more agile in order to prosper amongst their competitors. Many organizations, including the United States Department of Defense (DoD), have declared a renewed focus towards organizational agility. This research begins by providing a suitable and formal definition of organizational agility (OA) by exploring and analyzing relevant scholarly literature on the subject. Existing methods to measure OA are examined and summarized, and their current limitations are highlighted. Previous studies to find characteristics associated with organizational agility are examined and the Q-sort method was employed to discover, analyze and eliminate redundant items from …


Investigation Of An Avionics Part Deficiencies In Royal Saudi Air Force Fleets, Nasser S. Alanazi Sep 2020

Investigation Of An Avionics Part Deficiencies In Royal Saudi Air Force Fleets, Nasser S. Alanazi

Theses and Dissertations

The Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) is experiencing a shortage in certain avionics parts due to a lack of reliability. This issue is causing a supply chain disturbance in the F1-15 fleet and the Hawk fleet. One of the factors behind this problem is the environmental effects in Saudi Arabia .The study will investigate and analyze the methods for the Improvement Cycle Processes and the Quality Management within the RSAF repair cycle. Finding show that, the discrepancies are rising during summer and fall time due to the environment change, Other finding were addressed in the study.


Aligning Performance Management Systems For Lasting Outcomes In Humanitarian Operations, Kalyn M. Howard Sep 2020

Aligning Performance Management Systems For Lasting Outcomes In Humanitarian Operations, Kalyn M. Howard

Theses and Dissertations

Logistics is dynamic, expansive, and critical to organizational success. While it is generally believed that effective logistics management is associated with positive performance outcomes, the links between organizational practice and performance are understudied. This dissertation leverages resource-based theory and organizational learning theory to examine organizational practice and performance in non-traditional logistics settings, with particular focus on military organizations and humanitarian operational settings. First, a meta-analytical study establishes generalizable associations between various operations management practices and performance outcomes. Then, this is applied to dynamic humanitarian logistics settings, exploring how practitioners perceive practice and performance, and how this is reported and documented …


Forecasting Attrition By Afsc For The United States Air Force, Trey S. Pujats Mar 2020

Forecasting Attrition By Afsc For The United States Air Force, Trey S. Pujats

Theses and Dissertations

Retention and personnel management is a challenge for every organization, particularly the military due to its hierarchical structure and barriers to entry. Talent must be developed and retained to become leaders, beginning at the lowest level in the Air Force. The Air Force faces a retention problem unlike most organizations that requires a unique perspective and tailored solution to each Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC). There exists previous efforts to predict attrition rates in the Air Force based on economic factors. This study expands upon the economic factors and tailors the predictor variables of attrition based on the AFSC. The …


Applying Data Organizational Techniques To Enhance Air Force Learning, Jacob A. Orner Mar 2020

Applying Data Organizational Techniques To Enhance Air Force Learning, Jacob A. Orner

Theses and Dissertations

The USAF and the DoD use traditional schoolhouses to educate and train personnel. The physical aspects of these schoolhouses limit throughput. A method to increase throughput is to shift towards an asynchronous learning environment where students move through content at individually. This research introduces a methodology for transforming a set of unstructured documents into an organized TM students can use to orient themselves in a domain. The research identifies learning paths within the TM to create a directed KSAT. We apply this methodology in four case studies, each an education or training course. Using a graph comparison metric and the …


Strategic Sourcing Of Air Force Contingency Pharmaceuticals: A Cost-Benefit Analysis Approach, Adam J. Brubakken Mar 2020

Strategic Sourcing Of Air Force Contingency Pharmaceuticals: A Cost-Benefit Analysis Approach, Adam J. Brubakken

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to identify and explore effective supply chain management principles as mitigating measures to improve contingency pharmaceutical item shortfalls in the Air Force Medical Service Contingency Pharmaceutical Program. Analysis of current pharmaceutical shortages demonstrates a significant trend of insufficient demand signals for various pharmaceutical items, resulting in instances of non-fulfillment by private sector suppliers. Through the scope of transaction cost economics, a cost-benefit analysis for various alternatives was conducted. The proposed alternatives evaluated in this thesis include continuation of the status quo, centralized procurement models from a single site, and procurement from regionally designated ordering …


Predicting Pilot Success Using Machine Learning, Aaron C. Giddings Mar 2020

Predicting Pilot Success Using Machine Learning, Aaron C. Giddings

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force has a pilot shortage. Unfortunately, training an Air Force pilot requires significant time and resources. Thus, diligence and expediency are critical in selecting those pilot candidates with a strong possibility of success. This research applies multivariate and statistical machine learning techniques to pilot candidates pre-qualification test data and undergraduate pilot training results to determine whether there are selected pre-qualification tests or specific training evaluations that do a \best" job of screening for successful pilot training candidates and distinguished graduates. Flight experience, both during training and otherwise, indicates pilot training completion and performance.


Conceptualization And Application Of Deep Learning And Applied Statistics For Flight Plan Recommendation, Nicholas C. Forrest Mar 2020

Conceptualization And Application Of Deep Learning And Applied Statistics For Flight Plan Recommendation, Nicholas C. Forrest

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Forces Pilot Training Next (PTN) program seeks a more efficient pilot training environment emphasizing the use of virtual reality flight simulators alongside periodic real aircraft experience. The PTN program wants to accelerate the training pace and progress in undergraduate pilot training compared to traditional undergraduate pilot training. Currently, instructor pilots spend excessive time planning and scheduling flights. This research focuses on methods to auto-generate the planning of in-flight events using hybrid filtering and deep learning techniques. The resulting approach captures temporal trends of user-specific and program-wide student performance to recommend a feasible set of graded flight events for …


Sortie-Based Aircraft Component Demand Rate To Predict Requirements, Thomas R. O'Neal Mar 2020

Sortie-Based Aircraft Component Demand Rate To Predict Requirements, Thomas R. O'Neal

Theses and Dissertations

Weapon System Sustainment (WSS) costs are growing at an increasing rate despite the vast efforts to reduce them. Researchers have attributed much of the cost increase to inaccurate demand forecasts for weapon system spare parts. In 2011, the forecast to sustain all United States Air Force (USAF) aircraft was 19% accurate and WSS costs per year have continuously increased. The purpose of this study is to explore a parsimonious change to aircraft component forecasting to reduce costly forecast error. This study substitutes flying hours with sorties for the purpose of demand forecasting. Many F-16 and B-52 spare parts are evaluated …


Resilient Aircraft Sustainment: Quantifying Resilience Through Asset And Capacity Allocation, Zachary B. Shannon Mar 2020

Resilient Aircraft Sustainment: Quantifying Resilience Through Asset And Capacity Allocation, Zachary B. Shannon

Theses and Dissertations

Decision makers lack a clear, generalizable method to quantify how additional investment in inventory and capacity equates to additional levels of resilience. This research facilitates a deeper understanding of the intricacies and complex interconnectedness of organizational supply chains by monetarily quantifying changes in network resilience. The developed Area under the Curve metric (AUC) is used to quantify the level of demand that each asset allocation can meet during a disruptive event. Due to its applicability across multiple domains, the USAF F-16 repair network in the Pacific theater (PACAF) is modeled utilizing discrete event simulation and used as the illustrating example. …


Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell Mar 2020

Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …


Preliminary Study Of Communication Network Characterization Towards Improved Organizational Behavior, Taylor F. Flaxington Mar 2020

Preliminary Study Of Communication Network Characterization Towards Improved Organizational Behavior, Taylor F. Flaxington

Theses and Dissertations

Nearly one third of the Air Force acquisition system’s large programs are over cost and half are over budget; performance must improve. This research applies a systems perspective to this challenge and frames the acquisition system as a complex system of systems. It is a system composed of people in multiple organizations; organizations interacting with one another to develop, acquire and sustain weapon programs. The system’s performance is an emergent behavior of its components (people), structure and processes. Communication networks are a view of a system’s structure, revealing the flows and interactions between components (people) as the system accomplishes its …


The Impact Of Changing The Size Of Aircraft Radar Displays On Visual Search In The Cockpit, Justin R. Marsh Mar 2020

The Impact Of Changing The Size Of Aircraft Radar Displays On Visual Search In The Cockpit, Justin R. Marsh

Theses and Dissertations

Advances in sensor technology have enabled our fighter aircraft to find, fix, track, target, engage (F2T2E) at greater distances, providing the operator with more data within the battlefield. Modern aircraft are designed with larger displays while our legacy aircraft are being retrofitted with larger cockpit displays to enable display of the increased data. While this modification has been shown to enable improvements in human performance of many cockpit tasks, this effect is often not measured nor fully understood at a more generalizable level. This research outlines an approach to comparing human performance across two display sizes in future F-16 cockpits. …


Inherent Jeopardy Of Performance Based Contracting Metrics: A Simulation Experiment, Daniel Cherobini Mar 2020

Inherent Jeopardy Of Performance Based Contracting Metrics: A Simulation Experiment, Daniel Cherobini

Theses and Dissertations

There is a growing trend across the world to adopt Performance Based Contracting strategies to support logistics systems. Using these policies, contract payments are strongly related to the performance achieved compared to prespecified metrics. However, managers are not always confident on what are the most suitable performance goals to use in these agreements. As a consequence, contractors struggle to deliver the desired performance results, while aircraft fleets experience an increase in support costs. And when the results are inadequate, leaders are tempted to impose even more performance targets to contractors, willing to exercise more control over the support organization. In …


The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato Mar 2020

The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato

Theses and Dissertations

The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …


Three Views For Explaining And Resolving The Recruitment And Retention Challenges Of The Explosive Ordnance Disposal (Eod) Career Field, John A. Johnson Mar 2020

Three Views For Explaining And Resolving The Recruitment And Retention Challenges Of The Explosive Ordnance Disposal (Eod) Career Field, John A. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

Retention among the Air Force Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) career field has been a concern since the start of the war on terror. Now, as recruiting quotas are not being met, that concern is growing for senior leaders. In the coming years, retention and recruitment will be of the utmost importance to ensure full mission capability. This research analyzes two streams of data, 15 years of manpower information and the results of a survey administered to first-term Airmen, to identify the variables that have the greatest impact on turnover. An additional dataset, personnel data from more than 2,000 EOD candidates, …


Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards Mar 2020

Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …


Determinants Of Small Business Innovation Research Performance, Ethan E. Blake Mar 2020

Determinants Of Small Business Innovation Research Performance, Ethan E. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

This analysis shows that the Air Force SBIR Program has seen a high rate of failure (over 91%) in Phase II efforts that have completed funding within the last three Fiscal Years. The Joint Capability Area assignment process and subsequent analysis identified several high and low performing groups. Force Integration, Battlespace Awareness, and Protection JCAs were top performers while Command/Control, Logistics, and Force Application were low performers. Additional analysis showed that small businesses have more than double the commercialization rate of large businesses. The commercialization rates for businesses with 150 employees or fewer is 9% while the rate for businesses …


A Comparison Of Sbir Investment Methods: Afwerx Vs Legacy, Evan A. Gist Mar 2020

A Comparison Of Sbir Investment Methods: Afwerx Vs Legacy, Evan A. Gist

Theses and Dissertations

The AFWERX Open Topic (AOT) program uses funding from the United States Air Force’s (USAF) Small Business Innovation and Research (SBIR) budget to adapt commercial technology to USAF needs. The AOT approach to small business investment is markedly different from that of legacy SBIR investment methods. This research is a comparison of processes and outcomes for AOT and legacy SBIR. The first axis of comparison is on commercialization rates. Applying a legacy definition of commercialization on a sample of AOT contracts, we found AOT’s commercialization to be 37% (compared to an 8.8% for legacy SBIR). We caveat this finding by …


The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic Mar 2020

The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic

Theses and Dissertations

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …


An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller Mar 2020

An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …


Recognizing Potential Cyberspace Warriors Through The Use Of Suspicion Propensity Index, Meghan G. Strang Mar 2020

Recognizing Potential Cyberspace Warriors Through The Use Of Suspicion Propensity Index, Meghan G. Strang

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force currently suffers from excessively high attrition rates in the cyberspace career. The field is currently aiming to develop an entrance examination for the career, striving to improve personnel selection and decrease these high attrition rates. The attribute of suspicion is a key focus of the preliminary examination development, theorizing that it is a potential indicator present among competent cyber operators. This research makes use of the Suspicion Propensity Index (SPI), a reliable measure of one’s tendency to be suspicious, along with the highly cited Mayer’s trust questionnaire in order to compare the attributes that appear in successful …


Undergraduate Pilot Training Attrition: An Analysis Of Individual And Class Composition Component Factors, Christina M. Akers Mar 2020

Undergraduate Pilot Training Attrition: An Analysis Of Individual And Class Composition Component Factors, Christina M. Akers

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is working hard to reduce the shortage of nearly 2,000 pilots that threatens the Air Force’s core mission. Officials have focused on increasing retention and training throughput. Despite this, the first Pilot Training Next class graduated in August of 2018 with 13 of the initial 20 students (65.5% graduation rate). The purpose of this research is to explore attrition reduction by understanding how class composition of individual abilities and personalities affects the class graduation rate. Using AFOQT scores, SDI+ scores, PCSM scores, flight hours, and college GPAs, correlations were studied and a simple linear regression was run …


Behavioral Antecedents Of Fuel Efficiency, James A. Cotton Mar 2020

Behavioral Antecedents Of Fuel Efficiency, James A. Cotton

Theses and Dissertations

The US Department of Defense is the largest institutional petroleum consumer in the world. In addition to the financial cost of petroleum-based fuels, the US DoD generates more CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases than the entirety of modern, industrialized nations like Sweden and Norway. Other dangers and externalities arise from the fuels supply chain, like toxin risks to fuel handlers, and human costs to transport fuel in-theater. Within the DoD, the USAF alone often rivals or exceeds the consumption of all other services combined. While the USAF prefers technical, hardware-based solutions to problems, and has given increasing attention to logistical …


Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack Mar 2020

Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …


Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford Mar 2020

Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford

Theses and Dissertations

Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.