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Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

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On-Site Sensory Experience Boosts Acceptance Of Cultivated Chicken, Mark Chong, Angela K. Y. Leung, Tricia Marjorie Fernandez Jun 2024

On-Site Sensory Experience Boosts Acceptance Of Cultivated Chicken, Mark Chong, Angela K. Y. Leung, Tricia Marjorie Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study set out to assess if presenting cultivated chicken in the context of a familiar meal, in a familiar dining setting, would motivate repeat consumption and recommendation. A survey of 107 diners was conducted at Huber's Butchery and Bistro in Singapore – the world's first butchery to serve cultivated meat – from April to June 2023. The findings showed that eating cultivated chicken significantly boosted post-consumption acceptance levels. In addition, cultivated chicken's tastiness may be a more important factor than its integration into a familiar meal or dish in fostering repeat consumption. Implications for the cultivated meat industry, limitations, …


Untangling Influence: The Effect Of Follower-Followee Comparison On Social Media Engagement, Yi Peng, Liling Lu May 2024

Untangling Influence: The Effect Of Follower-Followee Comparison On Social Media Engagement, Yi Peng, Liling Lu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Social media platforms and marketers are keen on identifying truly influential creators. Number of followers (i.e., those who follow creators) and number of followees (i.e., those who are followed by creators) serve as cues to infer creators' influence. However, a cue of creators' actual influence is under-addressed and its effect on social media engagement remains to be explored. This research fills the gap in the literature by investigating how the cue of creators' actual influence (i.e., follower-followee comparison) may affect followers' engagement behavior. The study further examines the moderation effects of media-, topic-, and creator-related factors. The present work leverages …


The Status Of Status Research: A Review Of The Types, Functions, Levels And Audiences, Matteo Prato, Gokhan Ertug, Fabrizio Castellucci, Tengjian Zou Apr 2024

The Status Of Status Research: A Review Of The Types, Functions, Levels And Audiences, Matteo Prato, Gokhan Ertug, Fabrizio Castellucci, Tengjian Zou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Our review of 154 articles published over the last decade portrays an evolution of status research. This body of literature has transitioned from viewing status as a monolithic construct to appreciating its inherently multidimensional nature, characterized by diverse types, functions, levels, and audience structures. Although this shift has expanded our knowledge, it has also introduced increased complexity and fragmentation. To systematize this scattered work on a multifaceted view of status, we develop a comprehensive framework that integrates the diverse research findings. For each constituent part of this framework, we review key themes and insights in the literature and outline future …


Covid-19 And Management Scholarship: Lessons For Conducting Impactful Research, Gerard George, Gokhan Ertug, Jonathan P. Doh, Johanna Mair, Ajnesh Prasad Apr 2024

Covid-19 And Management Scholarship: Lessons For Conducting Impactful Research, Gerard George, Gokhan Ertug, Jonathan P. Doh, Johanna Mair, Ajnesh Prasad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The COVID-19 pandemic provided an opportunity for management scholars to address large-scale and complex societal problems and strive for greater practical and policy impact. A brief overview of the most-cited work on COVID-19 reveals that, compared with their counterparts in other disciplines, leading management journals and professional associations lagged in providing a platform for high-impact research on COVID-19. To help management research play a more active role in responding to similar global challenges in the future, we propose an integrative framework that emphasizes a phenomenon’s impact, the conditions that the phenomenon creates at multiple levels, and the responses of actors …


Siphoned Apart: A Portfolio Perspective On Order Flow Segmentation, Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner, Bart Zhou Yueshen Apr 2024

Siphoned Apart: A Portfolio Perspective On Order Flow Segmentation, Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner, Bart Zhou Yueshen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study liquidity supply in fragmented markets. Market makers intermediate heterogeneous order flows, trading off spread revenue against inventory costs. Applying our model to payment for order flow (PFOF), we demonstrate that portfolio-based considerations of inventory management incentivize market makers to segment retail orders by siphoning them off-exchange. Banning order flow segmentation reduces total welfare, can make trading more costly for all investors, and can resolve a prisoner's dilemma among market makers. These results differentiate our inventory-based model from the existing information-based theories of PFOF.


The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers Mar 2024

The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, the world has witnessed a backlash against globalization and a rise in populist and nationalist movements around the world. However, there appears to be little empirical research concerning how these movements, and especially nationalist sentiment, actually influence trade. Therefore, we explore how and when nationalist sentiment within a country influences trade. Our results indicate that the effect of nationalist sentiment on imports is mediated by lower participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) but not via tariffs. Furthermore, we are unable to confirm support for a direct effect of nationalist sentiment on imports, as predicted by the consumer …


My Manager Endorsed My Coworkers’ Voice: Understanding Observers’ Positive And Negative Reactions To Managerial Endorsement Of Coworker Voice., Emily Poulton, Szu-Han Joanna Lin, Shereen Fatimah, Cony Ho, Lance Ferris, Russell Johnson Mar 2024

My Manager Endorsed My Coworkers’ Voice: Understanding Observers’ Positive And Negative Reactions To Managerial Endorsement Of Coworker Voice., Emily Poulton, Szu-Han Joanna Lin, Shereen Fatimah, Cony Ho, Lance Ferris, Russell Johnson

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Research on managerial voice endorsement has primarily focused on the processes and conditions through which voicers receive their managers’ endorsement. We shift this focus away from the voicers, focusing instead on the dual reactions that endorsement generates for observing employees. Drawing from an approach-avoidance framework, we propose that managerial endorsement of coworker voice could be perceived as a positive and negative stimulus for observers, prompting them to approach opportunities and avoid threats, respectively. Results from a pre-registered experiment and a multi-wave, multi-source field study revealed that managerial endorsement of coworker voice was positively related to observers’ voice instrumentality, thus prompting …


Envy Influences Interpersonal Dynamics And Team Performance: Roles Of Gender Congruence And Collective Team Identification, Kenneth Tai, Sejin Keem, Ki Young Lee, Eugene Kim Feb 2024

Envy Influences Interpersonal Dynamics And Team Performance: Roles Of Gender Congruence And Collective Team Identification, Kenneth Tai, Sejin Keem, Ki Young Lee, Eugene Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Our research extends past envy research by considering how envy and gender congruence shape interpersonal dynamics at the dyadic level and their bottom-up effects for team performance. Integrating social comparison theory and social identity theory, we examine when and how dyadic level envy influences team performance. Using time-lagged data from 428 dyads of 161 employees in 51 teams, our results show that envious employees are likely to engage in interpersonal deviance directed toward envied team members and that envied employees are likely to seek advice from envious team members. Gender congruence further influences these relationships, with different patterns for males …


Diverse Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2024

Diverse Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge fund teams with heterogeneous educational backgrounds, academic specializations, work experiences, genders, and races, outperform homogeneous teams after adjusting for risk and fund characteristics. An event study of manager team transitions, instrumental variable regressions, and an analysis of managers who simultaneously operate solo- and team-managed funds address endogeneity concerns. Diverse teams deliver superior returns by arbitraging more stock anomalies, avoiding behavioral biases, and minimizing downside risks. Moreover, diversity allows hedge funds to circumvent capacity constraints and generate persistent performance. Our results suggest that diversity adds value in asset management. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the …


What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang Feb 2024

What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper compares the Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model with the Fama-French five-factor model from an investing perspective both in- and out-of-sample. Without margin requirements and model uncertainty, the Hou-Xue-Zhang model outperforms the Fama-French model. However, the outperformance could become negligible if an investor is subject to margin requirements and model uncertainty. The Hou-Xue-Zhang model shows similar power as the Fama-French model in describing the covariance matrix of asset returns. Overall, the two models do not make a difference for investing in a realistic setting.


Association Between Hba1c And Deep Sternal Wound Infection After Coronary Artery Bypass: A Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis, Wenyu Zhao, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Han Zhou, Oon Cheong Ooi, Haidong Luo Feb 2024

Association Between Hba1c And Deep Sternal Wound Infection After Coronary Artery Bypass: A Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis, Wenyu Zhao, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Han Zhou, Oon Cheong Ooi, Haidong Luo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

BackgroundDeep sternal wound infection (DSWI) constitutes a serious complication after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dose-response relationship between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level and the risk of DSWI after CABG.MethodsPubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify potentially relevant articles. According to rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria, fourteen studies including 15,570 patients were finally enrolled in our meta-analysis. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was used as the summary statistic. The robust-error meta-regression model was used to synthesize the dose-response relationship.ResultsOur meta-analysis shows that among patients undergoing …


An Integrative Review Of Management Research On Caste: Broadening Our Horizons, Hari Bapuji, Snehanjali Chrispal, Pardeep Singh Attri, Gokhan Ertug, Vivek Soundararajan Feb 2024

An Integrative Review Of Management Research On Caste: Broadening Our Horizons, Hari Bapuji, Snehanjali Chrispal, Pardeep Singh Attri, Gokhan Ertug, Vivek Soundararajan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Even though management research on caste is growing, it is not yet on a clear trajectory to realize its vast potential due to varying terminology and framing of caste, the limited incorporation of directly relevant work from proximate disciplines, and the narrow and selective usage of the attributes of caste. To remove these obstacles, we review 259 scholarly works on caste (216 articles and 43 books and research reports) and develop an integrative framework to i) clarify the contemporary manifestations of caste as being a graded hierarchy, an inherited membership, and a set of socially enforced practices, and ii) summarize …


How Deep-Level And Surface-Level Board Diversity, Formal And Informal Social Structures Affect Innovation, Guoli Chen, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Yen Teik Lee, Daniel Z. Mack Feb 2024

How Deep-Level And Surface-Level Board Diversity, Formal And Informal Social Structures Affect Innovation, Guoli Chen, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Yen Teik Lee, Daniel Z. Mack

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Despite a growing interest in understanding how board diversity shapes firms’ innovation, findings about the impact of board diversity have remained mixed. In this paper, we conceptualize board diversity as two forms – deep-level and surface-level – and find that these two forms of board diversity have opposing effects on a firm's innovation. We also theorize how formal and informal social structures can strengthen the positive effect of deep-level diversity yet simultaneously weaken the negative impact of surface-level diversity. We test our hypotheses with a panel of 42,432 firm-year observations from 2000 to 2019. Our paper contributes to the literature …


Attentional Engagement And Strategic Responses To Discontinuous Environmental Change: Evidence From The Us Banking Industry, Daniel Z. Mack, Theresa S. Cho, Andrew C. Yi Feb 2024

Attentional Engagement And Strategic Responses To Discontinuous Environmental Change: Evidence From The Us Banking Industry, Daniel Z. Mack, Theresa S. Cho, Andrew C. Yi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

While prior research has established a link between the attention an organization allocates to the external environment and its adaptations to environmental change, the nature of the cognitive processes that underlie this link remains underexamined. In this study, we explore how patterns of attentional engagement—that is, the extent to which attention allocation is focused and/or consistent over time—influence the organization’s formulation of strategic responses to discontinuous change. We advance a situated perspective on attentional engagement by suggesting how the type of learning and cognitive processes are situated in different attentional-engagement structures, and can, in turn, lead to heterogeneous strategic responses …


Innovation In Dynamic Knowledge Landscapes: Using Topic Modelling To Map Inventive Activity And Its Implications For Financial Performance, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx, Yimin Lin, Gerard George Jan 2024

Innovation In Dynamic Knowledge Landscapes: Using Topic Modelling To Map Inventive Activity And Its Implications For Financial Performance, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx, Yimin Lin, Gerard George

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the relationship between innovation and performance in the agricultural industry by studying how a firm's patent portfolio position in the knowledge landscape moderates the relationship between three firm search dimensions (scope, specialisation, and commitment) and the firm's financial performance. To represent dynamism in the knowledge landscape, we apply topic modelling to 67,120 patent texts of 571 firms and introduce two complementary perspectives on how knowledge can be dynamically categorised. This allows us to create two representations of the knowledge structure to identify contested (scarce) clusters of high (low) recent inventive activity and emergent clusters where knowledge ambiguity has …


Derivatives And Market (Il)Liquidity, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Cheng Zhang Jan 2024

Derivatives And Market (Il)Liquidity, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Cheng Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how derivatives (with nonlinear payoffs) affect the underlying assets liquidity. In a rational expectations equilibrium, informed investors expect low conditional volatility and sell derivatives to the others. These derivative trades affect different investors utility differently, possibly amplifying liquidity risk. As investors delta hedge their derivative positions, price impact in the underlying drops, suggesting improved liquidity, because informed trading is diluted. In contrast, effects on price reversal are ambiguous, depending on investors relative delta hedging sensitivity, i.e., the gamma of the derivatives. The model cautions of potential disconnections between illiquidity measures and liquidity risk premium due to derivatives trading.


Reeling In The Slack: An Integrative Review To Reinstate Slack As A Central Theoretical Construct For Management Research, Matthew P. Mount, Gokhan Ertug, Korcan Kavusan, Gerard George, Tengjian Zou Jan 2024

Reeling In The Slack: An Integrative Review To Reinstate Slack As A Central Theoretical Construct For Management Research, Matthew P. Mount, Gokhan Ertug, Korcan Kavusan, Gerard George, Tengjian Zou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Slack is a prominent construct in management research, shown to be relevant for a wide range of phenomena. Yet, despite slack’s prominence and breadth of application, our review reveals a lack of clarity and consistency in the categorization, theorizing, and measurement of various types and forms of slack. This has led to differences in the characterization and treatment of seemingly identical kinds of slack, which prevents the full exploitation of the conceptual depth of the slack construct and thus the creation of robust knowledge about slack resources. Based on a review of 229 studies which explicitly theorized about slack, we …


Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben Jin, Frank Weikai Li Jan 2024

Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben Jin, Frank Weikai Li

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using establishment-level data of U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. The cross-firm information spillovers and return predictability are also stronger for geographic peers with economic linkages and with positive information. Our results are broadly consistent with …


Introducing Business School Research And Positive Impact, Howard Thomas Jan 2024

Introducing Business School Research And Positive Impact, Howard Thomas

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Typically, there are three main priorities, and dimensions, which interact with each other as business schools frame their visions and missions of enhancing management knowledge and producing distinctive management theories and insights. First, the processes of knowledge generation and development to produce high quality, often multi-disciplinary research outputs involving academic faculty, doctoral students and ‘tri-sector’ participants. Second, knowledge dissemination in teaching and learning activities enabling the growth of quality education at undergraduate and postgraduate levels and thus contributing to student intellectual growth and societal socio-economic development and advancement. Third, knowledge transfer through ‘tri-sector’ collaboration, engagement and practice enhancements that is …


Personality Dynamics Turn Positive And Negative Mood Into Creativity, Ronald Bledow, Jana Kuhnel, Julius Kuhl Jan 2024

Personality Dynamics Turn Positive And Negative Mood Into Creativity, Ronald Bledow, Jana Kuhnel, Julius Kuhl

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Introduction: Research on the link between affect and creativity rests on the assumption that creativity unfolds as a stimulus-driven response to affective states. We challenge this assumption and examine whether personality dynamics moderate the relationship of positive and negative mood with creativity.Theoretical Model: According to our model, personality dynamics that generate and maintain positive affect and down-regulate negative affect energize creativity. Based on this model, we expect high creativity in response to negative mood if people engage in self-motivation and achieve a reduction in negative mood. We further derive that individual differences in action versus state orientation moderate the within-person …


Climate Change Concerns And Mortgage Lending, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li Jan 2024

Climate Change Concerns And Mortgage Lending, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether beliefs about climate change affect loan officers’ mortgage lending decisions. We show that abnormally high local temperature leads to elevated attention to and belief in climate change in a region. Loan officers approve fewer mortgage applications and originate lower amounts of loans in abnormally warm weather. This effect is stronger among counties heavily exposed to the risk of sea-level rise, during periods of heightened public attention to climate change, and for loans originated by small lenders. Additional tests suggest that the negative relation between temperature and approval rate is not fully explained by changes in local economic …


Language-Related Misunderstanding At Work: What It Is, Why It Occurs And What Organizations Can Do About It, John Fiset, Devasheesh P. Bhave Jan 2024

Language-Related Misunderstanding At Work: What It Is, Why It Occurs And What Organizations Can Do About It, John Fiset, Devasheesh P. Bhave

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Language is the foundation of human interaction. It plays a central role in facilitating effective communication by allowing people to express their thoughts, share essential information and establish connections with one another.


Shadow Bank, Risk-Taking, And Real Estate Financing: Evidence From The Online Loan Market, Xiaoying Deng, Chong Liu, Eng Seow Ong Jan 2024

Shadow Bank, Risk-Taking, And Real Estate Financing: Evidence From The Online Loan Market, Xiaoying Deng, Chong Liu, Eng Seow Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines whether and how individual risk-taking behavior affects real estate financing through shadow banks. Using the loan data from an online platform in China, we show that riskier households tend to employ online loans to meet the increasing down-payment in their home purchase. Individual investors are likely to fund riskier real estate loans with higher expected returns. Real estate loans experience higher ex-post default rates than other types of loans. The effect is more pronounced during the period of credit constraints.


The Persuasive Effect Of Ai-Synthesized Voices, Hannah H. Chang, Anirban Mukherjee Dec 2023

The Persuasive Effect Of Ai-Synthesized Voices, Hannah H. Chang, Anirban Mukherjee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology seeks to emulate humans. One aspect is AI-synthesized voices, used in voice assistants (such as Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, and Google Assistant) to assistive technologies (such as voiceover narration in product videos). For example, there are currently more than 3.25 billion voice assistants; a number that is expected to touch about 8 billion by next year (i.e., 2023) (Statista 2022). With the extensive availability and enhanced accuracy of AI-synthesized voices, consumer research is starting to examine the impact of AI-synthesized voices on consumer information processing and decision making. The extant literature, however, is relatively limited because …


Legal Risk And Insider Trading, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta Dec 2023

Legal Risk And Insider Trading, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Do illegal insiders internalize legal risk? We address this question with hand-collected data from 530 SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) investigations. Using two plausibly exogenous shocks to expected penalties, we show that insiders trade less aggressively and earlier and concentrate on tips of greater value when facing a higher risk. The results match the predictions of a model where an insider internalizes the impact of trades on prices and the likelihood of prosecution and anticipates penalties in proportion to trade profits. Our findings lend support to the effectiveness of U.S. regulations' deterrence and the long-standing hypothesis that insider …


The Economics Of Financial Scams: Evidence From Initial Coin Offerings, Kenny Phua, Bo Sang, Chi Shen Wei, Yang Yu Dec 2023

The Economics Of Financial Scams: Evidence From Initial Coin Offerings, Kenny Phua, Bo Sang, Chi Shen Wei, Yang Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the economics of financial scams by analyzing the market for initial coin offerings (ICOs). Using data snapshots of 5,873 ICOs, we find that irregularities in ICO characteristics across listing websites predict higher scam risk and are likely intentional. These patterns are consistent with a model where malicious issuers maximize profits by using irregularities to screen for naïve investors. Almost half of the ICOs in our sample may be scams, amounting to more than U.S. $6 billion in losses. Our results draw attention to the frequent use of screening mechanisms in financial scams.


Leviathan Inc. And Corporate Environmental Engagement, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Hao Liang, Pedro Matos Dec 2023

Leviathan Inc. And Corporate Environmental Engagement, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Hao Liang, Pedro Matos

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a 2010 special report, The Economist magazine termed the resurgence of state-owned, publicly listed enterprises “Leviathan Inc.” and criticized the poor governance and low efficiency of these firms. We compile a new comprehensive data set of state ownership of publicly listed firms in 44 countries over the period of 2004–2017 and show that state-owned enterprises are more responsive to environmental issues. The effect is more pronounced in economies lacking energy security and strong environmental regulation, and among firms with more local operations and higher domestic government ownership. We find a similar effect on corporate social engagement but not on …


Effect Of The Announcement Of Human-To-Human Transmission On Teleconsultation Services In China During Covid-19, Mairehaba Maimaitiming, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Yongjian Zhu Dec 2023

Effect Of The Announcement Of Human-To-Human Transmission On Teleconsultation Services In China During Covid-19, Mairehaba Maimaitiming, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Yongjian Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Objectives: Telemedicine enables patients to communicate with physicians effectively, especially during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, few studies have explored the use of online health care platforms for a comprehensive range of specialties during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to investigate how telemedicine services were affected by the announcement of human-to-human transmission in China. Methods: Telemedicine data from haodf.com in China were collected. A difference-in-differences analysis compared the number of telemedicine use and the number of active online physicians for different specialties in 2020 with the numbers in 2019, before and after the announcement of human-to-human transmission. Results: …


Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou Dec 2023

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …


Partisanship In Loan Pricing, Ramona Dagostino, Janet Gao, Pengfei Ma Dec 2023

Partisanship In Loan Pricing, Ramona Dagostino, Janet Gao, Pengfei Ma

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Does partisanship influence the way investors price financial assets? Using voter registration data of bankers originating large corporate loans, we show that bankers whose party differs from that of the U.S. President charge 7% higher loan spreads than other bankers. This effect holds regardless of borrowers’ partisanship, and becomes stronger for politically active bankers and when partisan media exhibit greater disagreement. Bankers do not match disproportionately with co-partisan borrowers but they lead syndicates more frequently with co-partisan bankers. Our results are not driven by bank or borrower fundamentals, but suggest that investor optimism, driven by political alignment, shapes asset prices.