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Predicting Processor Performance, G. Kent Webb

G. Kent Webb

Systems analysts and managers involved in planning for computer systems deployment and upgrades often require an estimate of future component performance. With a focus on processors used in desktop systems, this paper examines how long run technical trends, such as expressed in Moore's Law, can be used to predict future computing performance. historical data on the number of transistors and clock speeds were collected for Intel microprocessors beginning with their introduction in 1971. The data show that Moore's Law significantly overestimates long-term development which has been increasing but at a decreasing rate. results of experiments with other prediction equations are …