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A Neural Network To Predict Civilian Unemployment Rates, Milam Aiken

Journal of International Information Management

Forecasting national unemployment is one of the most important problems of modern economies, and most researchers have relied upon statistical techniques with their stringent data assumptions and low accuracy rates to predict changes in this macroeconomic data. This paper describes how a neural network using leading economic indicator data can help to predict civilian unemployment rates. Results show that the neural network provides superior estimates of rates one month into the future compared to multi-linear regression and two naive forecasting techniques.