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How Critical Is A Good Location To A Regional Shopping Center?, Mark Eppli, James Shilling
How Critical Is A Good Location To A Regional Shopping Center?, Mark Eppli, James Shilling
Mark J. Eppli
The goal of this paper is to empirically measure the consumer utility trade-off between store location (i.e., distance to a shopping center) and retail agglomeration in regional shopping centers. Using the Lakshmanan and Hansen retail expenditure model, our findings reveal that the distance specification is of surprisingly little importance in explaining retail sales. Conversely, agglomeration economies were of significant importance in explaining consumer patronage at regional shopping centers. The implication of these results is that smaller regional shopping centers may be dominated by large super-regional shopping centers with the smaller one or two anchor regional shopping centers unable to compete …
Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles Tu, Mark Eppli
Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles Tu, Mark Eppli
Mark J. Eppli
Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the …