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How Effective Are Neural Networks At Forecasting And Prediction? A Review And Evaluation, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy
How Effective Are Neural Networks At Forecasting And Prediction? A Review And Evaluation, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy
Monica Adya
Despite increasing applications of artificial neural networks (NNs) to fore- casting over the past decade, opinions regarding their contribution are mixed. Evaluating research in this area has been difficult, due to lack of clear criteria. We identified eleven guidelines that could be used in evaluating this literature. Using these, we examined applications of NNs to business forecasting and prediction. We located 48 studies done between 1988 and 1994. For each, we evaluated how effectively the proposed technique was compared with alternatives (effectiveness of validation) and how well the technique was implemented (effectiveness of implementation). We found that eleven of the …
Corrections To Rule-Based Forecasting: Findings From A Replication, Monica Adya
Corrections To Rule-Based Forecasting: Findings From A Replication, Monica Adya
Monica Adya
Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that combines forecasts from simple extrapolation methods based on features of time series. In this study, we provide corrections to ten of the 99 rules contained in RBF. These corrections were identified during a replication of RBF. Empirical comparisons indicate that the corrections did not lead to a noticeable improvement in accuracy when tested against some of the original data. However, in light of the fact that several studies are extending the work on RBF, it is important to report on these corrections to RBF.