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On The Widely Differing Effects Of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons From Twenty Years Of Trade Integration, Scott L. Baier, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin
On The Widely Differing Effects Of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons From Twenty Years Of Trade Integration, Scott L. Baier, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin
Economics Faculty Publications
We develop a novel two stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different trading pairs for the years 1986-2006. We then employ these estimates as our dependent variable in a “second stage” analysis characterizing the heterogeneity in these effects. Interestingly, most of this heterogeneity (∼ 2/3) occurs within FTAs (rather than across different FTAs), with asymmetric effects within pairs (on exports …