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Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 – 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and …