Business Commons^™

Threat-Balancing In Vendor Transition, Cecil Eng Huang Chua, Wee Kiat Lim, Siew Kien Sia, Christina Soh

CMP Research

While many outsourcing contracts are expiring, and vendor transition is becoming an increasing concern, little research helps organizations manage vendor transition. This paper explores vendor transition across two case sites. In one case, the outgoing vendor cooperated with the client which resulted in the client distancing itself from interactions between vendors. In the second case, the outgoing vendor was openly hostile, with the result that the client allied with the incoming vendor to manage vendor transition. These findings mirror expectations from balance of threat theory, a political science theory about interactions between nations. Balance of threat theory predicts that outgoing …

Style Investing And Institutional Investors, Kenneth Froot, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores the importance and price implications of style investing by institutional investors in the stock market. To analyze styles, we assign stocks to deciles or segments across three style dimensions: size, value/growth, and sector. We find strong evidence that institutional investors reallocate across style groupings more intensively than across random stock groupings. In addition, we show that own segment style inflows and returns positively forecast future stock returns, while distant segment style inflows and returns forecast negatively. We argue that behavioral theories play a role in explaining these results.

Icworld: An Mmog-Based Approach To Analysis, Kimberly Gill, David Rolston, Wyatt Wong, Robert Pietrusko

Journal of Strategic Security

Intelligence analysts routinely work with "wicked" problems—critical,time-sensitive problems where analytical errors can lead to catastrophic consequences for the nation's security. In the analyst's world, important decisions are often made quickly, and are made based on consuming, understanding, and piecing together enormous volumes of data. The data is not only voluminous, but often fragmented, subjective, inaccurate and fluid.Why does multi-player on-line gaming (MMOG) technology matter to the IC? Fundamentally, there are two reasons. The first is technological: stripping away the gamelike content, MMOGs are dynamic systems that represent a physical world, where users are presented with (virtual) life-and-death challenges that can …

Strategic Security As A New Academic Discipline, Sheldon Greaves, Ph.D

Journal of Strategic Security

The creation of Henley-Putnam University was an effort to create an academic institution for the purpose of offering degree programs in intelligence management, counterterrorism, and personal protection; subjects that arguably did not exist as academic disciplines when the school was conceived. The experience of two of the co-founders of the school, Nirmalya Bhowmick and Dr. Michael Corcoran, indicated that the training of officers tasked with vital security and intelligence work was carried out by partnering young officers with a training officer to help the new officer learn on the job. The effectiveness of this training depended to a great extent …

Short Takes: Intelligence-Service Psychology: A German Perspective, Sven Max Litzcke, Helmut Müller-Enbergs

Journal of Strategic Security

To date, four German volumes in the series "Intelligence-Service Psychology" (Nachrichtendienstpsychologie) have been published. These volumes generated interest in both the German and non-German speaking communities. It was therefore decided to translate some of the basic articles of the series into English (Litzcke, Müller-Enbergs & Ungerer, 2008), making them accessible to a wider range of readers. This article contains abbreviated versions of the articles in the book.

Research Note: Using The Iterate And Dots Databases, Peter A. Flemming, Edward Mickolus, Todd Sandler

Journal of Strategic Security

For more than three decades, Vinyard Software's two ITERATE (International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events) datasets have set the standard in events research for terrorism researchers. It has recently been supplemented by the DOTS (Data on Terrorist Subjects) biographies project, which covers all terrorists, supporters, and other individuals mentioned in the ITERATE project.

Books Received

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Dividing Up Intelligence Education, Robert Clark, Ph.D

Journal of Strategic Security

At this year's annual conference of the International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) in Monterey, CA, the keynote speaker posed the question, "How much do you need intelligence education outside the beltway?" Which led to a second question discussed during the conference: "What should such education look like?" In short, what should we be teaching in universities? What should we leave to the intelligence community as training? And what could be done in either or both settings? The first question of any educational effort is:What are we preparing students for?

Book Reviews, Bart Bechtel, Jeffrey Ahn

Journal of Strategic Security

Fair Play: The Moral Dilemmas of Spying. By James M. Olson.

The Corporate Spy: Industrial Espionage and Counterintelligence inthe Multinational Enterprise with Case Studies (Abridged Version) by Edward M. Roche.

Market Segmentation, Liquidity Spillover, And Closed-End Country Fund Discounts, Sai Pang (Justin) Chan, Ravi Jain, Yihong Xia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a segmented international capital market, the illiquidity of a country fund in the market in which its shares are traded affects only the share price of the fund (S), while the illiquidity of its underlying assets in the market in which these are traded affects only the fund net asset value (NAV). In an integrated market, illiquidity in one market can easily spill over to another and affect both the fund share price and its underlying asset value. It follows that the closed-end country fund premium, P[reverse not equivalent]ln(S)-ln(NAV), is negatively (positively) affected by the fund (underlying asset) illiquidity …

Performance, Bias, And Efficiency Of Foreign Exchange Correlation Forecasts, Stefano Mazzotta

Faculty and Research Publications

This paper evaluates the performance, bias, and the efficiency of option-implied and return-based correlation measures using 12 years of daily data on foreign exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) currency option. The sample includes five years of rates for the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna with respect to the euro and the U.S. dollar. The results show that implied correlation is a good predictor of realized correlation and is, generally, unbiased and efficient.

Home Biased Analysts In Emerging Markets, Sandy Lai, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that local analyst recommendations are systematically more optimistic than foreign analyst recommendations in emerging markets. The effects of this novel home bias among local analysts overwhelm any information asymmetry between foreign and local analysts. Consequently, local analyst upgrades underperform foreign analyst upgrades, while local analyst downgrades outperform foreign analyst downgrades. Neither foreign investors, local institutions, nor retail investors appear to be fully cognizant of this bias. Trade reactions suggest that foreign investors overestimate the bias in foreign analyst recommendations while local institutions underestimate the bias in local analyst recommendations. These results are pervasive across countries, time periods, and …

Momentum And Informed Trading, A. Hameed, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Consistent with the predictions of Wang (1994), we document that firm-specific informed trading is an important determinant of price momentum. The stronger return continuation in stocks with more informed trading cannot be explained by cross-sectional differences in uncertainty proxies such as analyst forecast dispersion, analyst coverage, idiosyncratic return volatility, and size. The relationship between informed trading and return continuation is also not attributable to cross-sectional differences in liquidity. Instead, our evidence emphasizes the role of price discovery in generating short-term price momentum.

Being Naive About Naive Diversification: Can Investment Theory Be Consistently Useful?, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The modern portfolio theory pioneered by Markowitz (1952) is widely used in practice and taught in MBA texts. DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal (2007), however, show that, due to estimation errors, existing theory-based portfolio strategies are not as good as we once thought, and the estimation window needed for them to beat the naive $1/N$ strategy (that invests equally across N risky assets) is 'around 3000 months for a portfolio with 25 assets and about 6000 months for a portfolio with 50 assets.' In this paper, we modify the modern portfolio theory to account for estimation errors, so that the theory …

The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability.

Using Van Valens Procedure In Business Research To Assess Consistent Differences In Multidimensional Variability In Two Or More Groups, Mark L. Berenson, Kimberly Killmer Hollister

Department of Information Management and Business Analytics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Much business research involves comparisons in two or more groups on many dimensions. This paper primarily focuses on demonstrating and providing guidance as to how researchers should approach a multivariate analysis in the comparison of sets of corresponding characteristics in two or more independent groups. In particular, this paper demonstrates the utility of a simple but not widely known procedure developed by Van Valen (1978) that should be employed to test for the significance of differences in overall variability in the sets of corresponding characteristics in two or more groups, a test that enjoys much statistical power in detecting significant …

International Strategic Alliance, Mohd Arif

Mohd Arif

A Strategic Alliance is a relationship between firms to creat more value than they can on their own

The Association Between Excess Audit Fees And Audit Quality: A Us-Uk Comparison, Soongsoo Han, Tony Kang, Yong Keun Yoo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Prior studies that examine the association between excess audit fees and audit quality (measured by discretionary accruals) using US data fail to document a significant association. However, there is no convincing explanation for this result to date. In this study, we test a cancellation hypothesis, which suggests that the non-association might be due to the cancellation effect between the risk-effort effect and the bonding effect that excess fees capture. To the extent that excess fees capture the compensation for effort the auditor puts in for a risky client, which is not captured in the existing audit fee models (the risk-effort …

A Tale Of Two Prices: Liquidity And Asset Prices In Multiple Markets, Justin Sai Pang Chan, Dong Hong, Marti G. Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the liquidity effect in asset pricing by studying the liquidity-premium relationship of an American depositary receipt (ADR) and its underlying share. Using the [Amihud, Yakov, 2002. Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time series effects. Journal of Financial Markets 5, 31-56] measure, the turnover ratio and trading infrequency as proxies for liquidity, we show that a higher ADR premium is associated with higher ADR liquidity and lower home share liquidity, in terms of changes in these variables. We find that the liquidity effects remain strong after we control for firm size and a number of country characteristics, …

Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, And Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, Or Prescription?, Gary L. Caton, Jeremy C. Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the effect of poison pill adoptions on firm value, controlling for the adopting firm's preexisting corporate governance structure. We find that only companies with the most democratic governance structures, defined as those with the fewest preexisting protective governance provisions, experience significantly positive abnormal stock returns and significantly positive abnormal revisions in five-year earnings growth rate forecasts. Moreover, regression results indicate that abnormal returns and forecast revisions are significantly related to governance structure and not to board composition or subsequent merger activity.

Behavioral Explanations Of Trading Volume And Short-Horizon Price Patterns: An Investigation Of Seven Asia-Pacific Markets, David K. Ding, Thomas H. Mclnish, Udomsak Wongchoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate whether behavioral postulations offer any implicit explanation of the country-varying relation between trading volume and price pattern among short-horizon winners/losers in seven Pacific-Basin markets during the period 1990 to 2000. Our findings lend credence to the Lee and Swaminathan [Lee, C. and Swaminathan, B., 2000. Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance 55, 2017-2069.] Momentum Life Cycle explanation that high (low) volume winners (losers) are more likely to experience price reversals, whereas high (low) volume losers (winners), price momentum, in the subsequent period. This observation is especially pronounced in Hong Kong. Other models such as those based …

Dynamic Investment Opportunities And The Cross-Section Of Hedge Fund Returns : Implications Of Higher-Moment Risks For Performance, Vikas Agarwal, Gurdip Bakshi, Joop Huij

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

In this paper, we examine higher-moment market risks in the cross-section of hedge fund returns to make several contributions. First, we show that hedge funds are substantially exposed to the three highermoment risks - volatility, skewness, and kurtosis. In contrast, mutual funds do not display meaningful dispersions in their exposures to these risks. Further, funds of hedge funds when examined as a separate investment category do not show aggressive loading on higher-moment risks. Second, we provide evidence on economically significant premiums being embedded in hedge fund returns on account of their exposures to higher-moment risks. Third, we uncover a set …

Chapter Xii: A Comparison And Scenario Analysis Of Leading Data Mining Software, John Wang, Xiaohua Hu, Kimberly Hollister, Dan Zhu

Department of Information Management and Business Analytics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Finding the right software is often hindered by different criteria as well as by technology changes. We performed an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis using Expert Choice to determine which data mining package was best suitable for us. Deliberating a dozen alternatives and objectives led us to a series of pair-wise comparisons. When further synthesizing the results, Expert Choice helped us provide a clear rationale for the decision. The issue is that data mining technology is changing very rapidly. Our article focused only on the major suppliers typically available in the market place. The method and the process that we …

Leverage Change, Debt Capacity, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe (Joe) Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We document a significantly negative effect of the change in a firm’s leverage ratio on its stock prices. This effect cannot be explained by popular asset pricing factors or firm characteristics. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms with limited debt capacity. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment, even after controlling for growth option and target leverage. These findings are consistent with a dynamic view of the pecking-order theory that an increase in leverage reduces firms’ safe debt capacity and may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing firm value. …

Which Shorts Are Informed?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a long daily panel of short sales using proprietary NYSE order data. From 2000 to 2004, shorting accounts for more than 12.9% of NYSE volume, suggesting that shorting constraints are not widespread. As a group, these short sellers are well informed. Heavily shorted stocks underperform lightly shorted stocks by a risk-adjusted average of 1.16% over the following 20 trading days (15.6% annualized). Institutional nonprogram short sales are the most informative; stocks heavily shorted by institutions underperform by 1.43% the next month (19.6% annualized). The results indicate that, on average, short sellers are important contributors to efficient stock prices.

Liquidity Distribution In The Limit Order Book On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The liquidity distribution, or the shape of the limit order book, influences trading behavior and choice of order submission by public liquidity suppliers. The present study seeks to discover whether liquidity providers are concerned about being picked off by informed traders, and whether they are less willing to supply liquidity at the market or demand higher price spreads. The results show that liquidity at the market is a small portion of total liquidity, and that firm size, minimum tick size, volatility, and trading volume play significant roles in determining the liquidity distribution within an order book.

Investment Patterns In Singapore's Central Provident Fund System, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Toto Tanuwidjaja, Joelle Fong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Rising elderly life expectancies imply the need to accumulate sufficient savings for retirement. This paper investigates the role of recent changes in the investment menu of the Singaporean Central Provident Fund (CPF) system. Our research explores the investment patterns of CPF participants and articulates their implications for policymakers. We find that most investors use their money for housing purchase and default the remainder to the CPF investment pool. The bulk of non-housing saving sits in bank accounts paying a low return. A fraction of workers does elect outside investment products, with high-income earners and males taking more risk than low-income …

Short-Horizon Contrarian And Momentum Strategies In Asian Markets: An Integrated Analysis, Thomas H. Mcinish, David K. Ding, Chong Soo Pyun, Udomsak Wongchoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, we test the profitability of short-term contrarian and momentum strategies, which take into account the effects of trading activity, size/value characteristics, and asymmetric investor responses to news regarding stock markets in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore during 1990–2000. Except for the Taiwanese and Korean markets, “winner” (“loser”) portfolios experience subsequent reversal (momentum) of stock prices. Among actively traded stocks, significant contrarian profits can be obtained from only “winner” portfolios in Japan, while sizeable momentum profits from “loser portfolios” in both Japan and Hong Kong.

Further Evidence On The Approximation Of Confidence Intervals For Sharpe Style Weights: The Case Of Australian Listed Managed Funds, Kok Fai Phoon, John Watson, Jayasinghe Wickramanayake

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.