Business Commons^™

Application Of Stochastic Control To Portfolio Optimization And Energy Finance, Junhe Chen

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis, we study two continuous-time optimal control problems. The first describes competition in the energy market and the second aims at robust portfolio decisions for commodity markets. Both problems are approached via solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) and HJB-Isaacs (HJBI) equations.

In the energy market problem, our target is to maximize profits from trading crude oil by determining optimal crude oil production. We determine the optimal crude oil production rate by constructing a differential game between two types of players: a single finite-reserve producer and multiple infinite-reserve producers. We extend the deterministic unbounded-production model and stochastic monopolistic game to …

Analyst Talent, Information, And Investment Strategies, Zhichuan Li, Stephen R. Foerster, Zhenyang Tang, Chongyu Dang

Business Publications

Analyst talent, rather than the number of analysts following a firm, matters most to investors. We find: 1) Analysts with greater “natural” forecasting talent—controlling for experience, brokerage affiliation, and task complexity—contribute relatively more firm-specific rather than industry or market information; 2) Earnings forecasts by low-talent analysts may lead to substantial mispricing; 3) When earnings surprises are large, post-earnings-announcement drift is more prominent among firms covered by low-talent analysts; 4) Firms with low-talent analysts have significantly more insider trading prior to positive earnings news; and 5) Investing following insider trading is more profitable in stocks followed by low-talent analysts.