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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Business
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
Can an investor realize meaningful returns by choosing sustainability? Global Knights publishes an annual 100 Global Most Sustainable companies list which has been announced each January in Davos, Switzerland since 2005. This paper examines the global recognition of the US sustainable companies which make that list and the presence of cumulative abnormal returns of their portfolio. Event study methodology is used to assess short and long term cumulative abnormal returns of a dynamic portfolio updated annually over 16 years to include those names. Standard Deviations and Sortino Ratios are evaluated to determine the comparative level of risk a potential investor …
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This paper analyzes the relationship between the presidential election year and the stock market returns in the United States by examining the monthly returns of the Standard &Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1959 to December 2019. In essence, I test whether stock market returns improve during presidential election year, consistent with the political business cycle (PBC) and its later offshoot, the ‘presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis, which assumes that incumbent presidents and their parties improve economic growth and the stock market outlook by embracing expansionary macroeconomic policy. I employ the Least Squares Regression tests on monthly S&P 500 index …