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Operations and Supply Chain Management

Air Force Institute of Technology

2017

Forecasting

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A Condition Based Maintenance Approach To Forecasting B-1 Aircraft Parts, Joshua D. Defrank Mar 2017

A Condition Based Maintenance Approach To Forecasting B-1 Aircraft Parts, Joshua D. Defrank

Theses and Dissertations

United States Air Force (USAF) aircraft parts forecasting techniques have remained archaic despite new advancements in data analysis. This approach resulted in a 57% accuracy rate in fiscal year 2016 for USAF managed items. Those errors combine for $5.5 billion worth of inventory that could have been spent on other critical spare parts. This research effort explores advancements in condition based maintenance (CBM) and its application in the realm of forecasting. It then evaluates the applicability of CBM forecast methods within current USAF data structures. This study found large gaps in data availability that would be necessary in a robust …