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Comparing Nws Pop Forecasts To Third-Party Providers, J. Eric Bickel, Eric Floehr, Seong Dae Kim
Comparing Nws Pop Forecasts To Third-Party Providers, J. Eric Bickel, Eric Floehr, Seong Dae Kim
Eric Bickel
In this paper, the authors verify probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS), The Weather Channel (TWC), and CustomWeather (CW). The n-day-ahead forecasts, where n ranges from 1 to 3 for the NWS, from 1 to 9 for TWC, and from 1 to 14 for CW, are analyzed. The dataset includes almost 13 million PoP forecasts, or about 500 000 PoPs per provider per day of lead time. Data were collected over a 2-yr period (1 November 2008–31 October 2010) at 734 observation stations across the contiguous United States. In addition to verifying these PoP …
Some Comparisons Among Quadratic, Spherical, And Logarithmic Scoring Rules, Eric Bickel
Some Comparisons Among Quadratic, Spherical, And Logarithmic Scoring Rules, Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
Strictly proper scoring rules continue to play an important role in probability assessment. Although many such rules have been developed, relatively little guidance exists as to which rule is the most appropriate. In this paper, we discuss two important properties of quadratic, spherical, and logarithmic scoring rules. From an ex post perspective, we compare their rank order properties and conclude that both quadratic and spherical scoring perform poorly in this regard, relative to logarithmic. Second, from an ex ante perspective, we demonstrate that in many situations, logarithmic scoring is the method least affected by a nonlinear utility function. These results …