Business Commons^™

Modeling Air Force Retention With Macroeconomic Indicators, Michelle K. Mcgee

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention has been a longstanding problem for Air Force leadership. Both intuition and previous research suggest economic and demographic factors play important roles in an officers decision to separate from service. Leading economic indicators are nationally reported statistics that tend to be predictive of where the economy is heading. This work targets the research gap of how leading economic indicators explain and predict attrition. Due to the noisy, complex nature of the data, the model had varied success in accurately predicting future attrition rates. As a result of this research, the current models can incorporate these findings to become …