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Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we …