Business Commons^™

Research Methodologies And The Field Of Decision Analysis.Pdf, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

In Memoriam: Howard Raiffa, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

Project Management Decisions With Uncertain Targets, Jeffrey Keisler, Robert Bordley

Jeffrey Keisler

Project management decision rules presume that fixed and inflexible targets have been defined for the project. If a project's slack is defined as the difference between actual project performance and these targets, then these decision rules can be characterized as maximizing the probability that slack is non-negative (i.e., maximizing the probability of meeting the targets). These rules rely on z-scores to compare uncertain performance to target levels. Following these decision rules will not always suffice for the project manager to act consistently with customer preferences. In particular, actual requirements may be uncertain or subject to change, and customers may have …

Value Focused Thinking For Community-Based Organizations: Objectives And Acceptance In Local Development, Jeffrey Keisler, David Turcotte, Rachel Drew, Michael Johnson

Jeffrey Keisler

A multi-site case study applies value-focused thinking methods in a community engaged research framework within three organizations. All three organizations are community development corporations (CDCs), a type of community based organization (CBO) who direct assets and efforts toward housing stock and neighborhood improvement. Objectives hierarchies were developed for the three sites. A set of common aspects of these structures suggest ways to operationalize the generic mission of CDCs. Other aspects which vary across sites can be related to specific characteristics of the organizations and the communities in which they operate. The process of applying value-focused thinking is also compared across …

Electronic Supplement For: Value Focused Thinking For Community-Based Organizations: Objectives And Acceptance In Local Development, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

This is an electronic supplement containing additional information describing the case studies analyzed in the article published in EURO Journal of Decision Processes

Value Of Information Analysis: The State Of Application. Environment Systems & Decisions, Jeffrey Keisler, Eric Chu, Zachary Collier, Nina Sinatra, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

The value of information (VoI) is a decision analytic method for quantifying the potential benefit of additional information in the face of uncertainty. This paper reviews the prevalence of VoI applications reported in the peer-reviewed literature from the years 1990–2011. We categorize papers’ applications across the types of uncertainties considered, modeling choices, and contexts of social importance (such as health care and environmental science). We obtain and analyze statistics on the range of applications and identify trends and patterns in them, and conclude with an interpretation of what these mean for researchers and practitioners as they pursue new efforts. Key …

Value Of Information: Facilitating Targeted Information Acquisition In Decision Processes, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis And Environmental Modeling For The Everglades, Matteo Convertino, Christy Foran, Jeffrey Keisler, Lynn Scarlett, Andrew Loschiavo, Greg Kiker, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Connecting Big Data With Big Decisions: Ideas For Synthesizing Analytics And Decision Analysis, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

This paper describes an approach to connect decision analysis models with outputs of analytic methods applied to various types of big data. Decision analysis models focus on issues of concern to a decision maker and incorporate use of a range of methods and axioms to develop insights about what the decision maker should do. In particular, decision analysis models typically use subjective judgments from the decision maker to describe beliefs about the likelihood of events and the desirability of outcomes. In order for human judgments to be improved by the availability of large amounts of data and processing power, it …

Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial For Decision Consultants, Jeffrey Keisler, Patrick Noonan

Jeffrey Keisler

Good analysis alone may not achieve the goals of decision analysis (DA) engagements. Good communication of the results of that analysis can help stakeholders understand, accept, and implement the recommended course of action. Practitioners can use decision analytic principles when considering the decision of how to communicate results themselves. From this perspective, we consider a range of questions to ask in preparing for communication with the client and other stakeholders. We review standard communication practices in DA engagements. The standard practice can be improved by drawing on insights from other areas of management practice. Decision analysis has both technical and …

An Invitation To Portfolio Decision Analysis, Ahti Salo, Jeffrey Keisler, Alec Morton

Jeffrey Keisler

Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) – the application of decision analysis to the problem of selecting a subset or portfolio from a large set of alternatives – accounts for a significant share, perhaps the greater part, of decision analysis consulting. By construction, PDA has a sound theoretical and methodological basis, and its ability to contribute to better resource allocation decisions has been demonstrated in numerous applications. This book pulls together some of the rich and diverse efforts as a starting point for treating PDA as a promising and distinct area of study and application. In this introductory chapter, we first describe …

Enhancing Decision Analysis Models With Web Agents, Jeffrey M. Keisler, Wei Zhang

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

Additivity Of Information Value In Two-Act Linear Loss Decisions With Normal Priors, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is super-additive in value. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the canonical problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.

Technical Note: Comparative Static Analysis Of Information Value In A Canonical Decision Problem, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

To gain insight into the behavior of the value of information, this paper identifies specific rules for a canonical decision problem: the two-act linear loss decision with normal prior probability distributions. Conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information increases when mean and standard deviation are both linear functions of an exogenous variable. A variety of richer decision problems can be adapted to the problem, so that the general results obtained here can be immediately applied to understand drivers of information value.

Allocating Contractor Risks In The Hanford Waste Cleanup, Jeffrey M. Keisler, William A. Buehring, Peter D. Mclaughlin, Mark A. Robershotte, Ronald G. Whitfield

Jeffrey Keisler

Organizations may view outsourcing as a way to manage risk. We developed a decision-analytic approach to determine which risks the buyer can share or shift to vendors and which ones it should bear. We found that allocating risks incorrectly could increase costs dramatically. Between 1995 and 1998, we used this approach to develop the request for proposals (RFP) for the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) privatization initiative for the Hanford tank waste remediation system (TWRS). In the model, we used an assessment protocol to predict how vendors would react to proposed risk allocations in terms of their actions and their …

Attribute-Based Differentiation Of Alternatives, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

An intermediate step is introduced to the decision dialogue process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When …

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler

The quality and value of an area depend primarily on what is found within its designated boundaries. To determine the value of such areas in terms of boundaries, we have developed a methodology for integrating multi-attribute utility functions with spatial analysis so that desirable, or appropriate, boundaries can be determined on the basis of the goals and objectives for the park. The key to successful evaluation is the development of measures for what decision makers value, rather than merely using what is easily measured. In a detailed example for planning of national parks, the fundamental objectives are conservation and societal …